Best play
“The Assembled Parties” (Richard Greenberg); “Lucky Guy” (Nora Ephron); “The Testament of Mary” (Colm Toibin); “Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike” (Christopher Durang)
Should/will win: The wacky, whimsical, ultimately poignant Chekhov mashup “Vanya and Sonia” has already earned several awards for Durang, a beloved vet whose time has clearly arrived.
Best musical
“Bring It On: The Musical;” “A Christmas Story, The Musical;” “Matilda The Musical;” “Kinky Boots”
Should/will win: For all its predictable aspects, “Kinky Boots” is more emotionally authentic – and flat-out fun – than the critically adored “Matilda,” a wonderful production of a show that’s a little too self-conscious and smug to be a great musical.
Will win: “Matilda,” probably – though it’ll be close.
Best revival of a play
“Golden Boy;” “Orphans;” “The Trip to Bountiful”; “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?”
Should/will win: Lincoln Center Theater’s shattering “Golden Boy” is just as deserving as the Steppenwolf-based “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?:” but the latter brought a new, bracing perspective to a more frequently performed 20th century classic, and will be rewarded for that.
Best revival of a musical
“Annie;” “The Mystery of Edwin Drood;” “Pippin;” “Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella”
Should/will win: All were thoroughly charming, but “Pippin” was magical, reimagining a duly loved show (that had never been revived on Broadway) with both reverence and exhilarating imagination.
Best performance by an actor in a leading role in a play
Tom Hanks, “Lucky Guy;” Nathan Lane, “The Nance;” Tracy Letts, “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?;” David Hyde Pierce, “Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike;” Tom Sturridge, “Orphans”
Should win: Lane gave one of the richest performances of his formidable career, and the prize would have been an easy favorite – had it not been for Letts, who with his ferocious take on George in “Virginia Woolf” made a role played by many great actors completely his own.
Will win: Letts, most likely – though don’t discount Hanks; Tony loves movie stars when they’re game and credible.
Best performance by an actress in a leading role in a play
Laurie Metcalf, “The Other Place;” Amy Morton, “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?;” Kristine Nielsen, “Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike;” Holland Taylor, “Ann;” Cicely Tyson, “The Trip to Bountiful”
Should win: Like her co-star, Morton took an iconic character and put her own stamp on it; her witheringly dry, palpably needy Martha was a revelation.
Will win: In arguably the tightest race of any high-profile category, Tyson, a showbiz legend who made a delightful return to Broadway after a three-decade absence, is the likeliest victor.
Best performance by an actor in a leading role in a musical
Bertie Carvel, “Matilda The Musical;” Santino Fontana, “Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella;” Rob McClure, “Chaplin;” Billy Porter, “Kinky Boots;” Stark Sands, “Kinky Boots”
Should/will win: Porter was entirely convincing, and captivating, as a fabulous drag queen and a haunted, insecure young man – who happened to be the same person.
Best performance by an actress in a leading role in a musical
Stephanie J. Block, “The Mystery of Edwin Drood;” Carolee Carmello, “Scandalous;” Valisia LeKae, “Motown The Musical;” Patina Miller, “Pippin;” Laura Osnes, “Rodgers + Hammerstein’s Cinderella”
Should/will win: Each was enchanting in her own way, but Miller faced the greatest challenge: re-creating a role that would forever be associated with one of musical theater’s great male performers, Ben Vereen. She pulled it off with both class and sass.
Best direction of a play
Pam MacKinnon, “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?;” Nicholas Martin, “Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike;” Bartlett Sher, “Golden Boy;” George C. Wolfe, “Lucky Guy”
Should/will win: Bartlett’s gorgeous Boy and Wolfe’s smart, likable Guy make them strong contenders, but MacKinnon’s fearless Virginia Woolf gives her the edge.
Best direction of a musical
Scott Ellis, “The Mystery of Edwin Drood;” Jerry Mitchell, “Kinky Boots”; Diane Paulus, “Pippin;” Matthew Warchus, “Matilda The Musical”
Should/will win: Warchus and Mitchell did splendidly with original work, but Paulus’ revitalization of “Pippin” has been singled out by many musical fans and critics.
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