The Animas River usually peaks (maximum flow rate) in the first week of June. Lately, it has been much earlier because of the warm weather and low snowpack in the mountains. In my past years studying weather in anticipation of runoff in the Animas and surrounding river basins, I have found that when we have a wet spring, it can hold off the peak flows and also significantly add to them. The snow courses are almost all below elevation 11,500 feet, so they do not reflect high-level snowpack. I believe just a few major snowstorms late in the season can drastically change the predicted outflow and peak flows on the streams. As we observe new snow in the mountains now, we can anticipate a higher peak flow when warm weather comes this year. This pertains to the basins such as the Animas, Florida and Pine main stems in particular.

Ken Beegles

Durango

Editor’s note: Beegles is a former engineer for the Colorado Division of Water Resources.