School is out for the year, the trees are in bloom and the days are long and warm.
Though it’s still spring – and will be until Summer Solstice on June 21 – much of May has felt particularly summerlike. And especially after this year’s lackluster winter, warm temperatures and the lack of snow has raised concerns about water supplies and wildfire danger in Southwest Colorado.
But there is hope: More rain may be in store for the region this summer.
The National Weather Service’s Central Region Climate Outlook issued Sunday said there is an 82% chance that an El Niño weather pattern will develop between May and July, which could bring a higher chance of above-average precipitation this summer.
Additionally, the U.S. Drought Monitor said drought conditions, which have been persistent across the Western United States for the past several months, are expected improve in Colorado over the next three months.
But, even with such a hopeful outlook, NWS Meteorologist Kate Abbot said a slightly rainier pattern should start to appear the first week of June in Southwest Colorado.
“As we move into next week, we start to set up into more of a southwesterly flow pattern,” Abbot said. “We start to see some chances for afternoon showers in the San Juan Mountains, with probabilities increasing as the week progresses.”
Those storms could produce anywhere from a few hundreths to a tenth of an inch of moisture. That’s a good thing, Abbot said, because if those storms produced less precipitation, they could pose an increased chance of lightning-sparked wildfires.
“We’re not flagging that period for too much of a dry thunderstorm risk,” Abbot said. “But (those types of storms are) certainly something we’ll be looking for during much of the summer here, especially before our more typical monsoon pattern kicks in.”
After that, Abbot said, the forecast begins to trend toward an increasing shift of wetter weather.
“(Models) start to key in on leaning toward above-normal precipitation chances as we get further into the summer,” Abbot said. “The chance increases in the Four Corners region especially in the three-month outlook, which is valid for June, July and August.”
The only caveat, Abbot said, is that those same models are expecting above-normal temperatures across Colorado.
Still, a more active hurricane system in the eastern Pacific Ocean could indicate more precipitation in the Southwest United States, Abbot said.
“If that El Niño pattern does continue to strengthen as anticipated, that could help,” Abbot said. “El Niño is associated with a more active eastern Pacific hurricane season, and sometimes that moisture can get directed into our area if the weather pattern sets up correctly for us.”
Reader Comments