A new year is a time for reflection of what has passed and to wonder about the future, immediate and longer term.

While my particular knowledge set does not afford me the chance to ponder great philosophical or spiritual questions, I can provide some insights of things to come.

On the national front, I’m guessing things will progress more or less along the same lines as this year.

While optimism is creeping into our economy, there are still a couple of headwinds that could derail us.

First is the wrangling in Congress, of course. The savings from the recent bipartisan Ryan-Murray budget package is relatively insignificant, a “measly” $45 billion over what would have spent anyway.

This may sound like a lot, but in a $16 trillion economy, it’s pretty meaningless. How many of you turn your car upside down if a quarter falls between the seats?

No, I believe this agreement to be more symbolic than real. It shows members of Congress actually can talk to each other, and that is good because the House has a 9 percent approval rating – probably behind traffic jams and lice.

However, as I’m sure you’re well-aware, this thing chips away at the edges and doesn’t trim any of the true fat, er, pork.

But many pundits believe even this compromise is somewhat suspect. Watch this space.

Next, the oft-mentioned unemployment rate is dropping. Good news? Well, yes. And no.

Good in that the unemployment is dropping, to 7 percent from 10 percent, according to the last announcement. But the employment-to-population ratio has been stuck at 58.5 percent, give or take, over the same four-year period.

The ratio of long-to-short term unemployed remains three times normal. For the 1.3 million with unemployment insurance, its expiration days after Christmas won’t be fun.

Stock markets continue to do well, great for those with investments.

Closer to home, I imagine the same sort of diagnosis. The Colorado economy is improving and, currently, it is tracking closely to the U.S. economy. And unemployment is still falling. All good.

The easiest metric for our local economy to follow is real estate and, anecdotally, things are looking up. It’s getting harder and harder to find decent housing. But be aware that the Fed is cutting back its cheap money, and mortgage rates are likely to rise so we’ll see how that affects the local market.

Couple that with 5 percent year-on-year personal income growth and a 5 percent unemployment, and you have the makings for a potentially good year.

Downtown Christmas shopping parking issues aside – gotta love the law unintended consequences – I’m feeling almost bullish, let’s call it “steerish.”

For alternative perspectives on the upcoming year, please join us for the 22nd edition of the Southwest Business Forum in the Community Concert Hall at 3 p.m. Jan. 8.

[email protected]. Robert “Tino” Sonora is an associate professor of economics at Fort Lewis College and director of the Office of Business and Economic Research at Fort Lewis College.