{"id":98621,"date":"2018-07-24T19:39:54","date_gmt":"2018-07-25T01:39:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/odds-are-el-nino-precipitation-will-return\/"},"modified":"2018-07-24T19:39:54","modified_gmt":"2018-07-25T01:39:54","slug":"odds-are-el-nino-precipitation-will-return","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/odds-are-el-nino-precipitation-will-return\/","title":{"rendered":"Odds are El Ni\u00f1o, precipitation will return"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\"Forecasters
Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Climate Prediction Center are predicting a 70 percent chance of an El Ni\u00f1o pattern forming this fall. El Ni\u00f1o patterns typically bring good snowfall to Southwest Colorado.<\/span>Brian Melley\/Associated Press file<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

Southwest Colorado may escape the arid grip of the La Ni\u00f1a weather pattern, with forecasters saying there\u2019s a good chance El Ni\u00f1o, and the moisture it brings, will return this fall.<\/p>\n

One of the major dictators of weather in Southwest Colorado is surface water temperatures in the eastern-central Pacific Ocean that come in cycles known as the \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation climate pattern.\u201d<\/p>\n

When surface water temperatures in the ocean are colder than normal, a La Ni\u00f1a pattern kicks in. La Ni\u00f1as typically bring above-average temperatures and little, if any, precipitation to Southwest Colorado.<\/p>\n

This past year has been a classic La Ni\u00f1a pattern, with little snowpack and virtually no precipitation, resulting in one of the driest years in Southwest Colorado\u2019s recorded history.<\/p>\n

Since April, the region has been listed in \u201cexceptional drought\u201d \u2013 the most intense drought category, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. As of Tuesday, the region still holds this listing.<\/p>\n

However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Climate Prediction Center released some good news recently: El Ni\u00f1o, which holds the promise for more moisture, could be on its way.<\/p>\n

The opposite of La Ni\u00f1a, an El Ni\u00f1o, which often brings Southwest Colorado winters with plentiful snowfall, occurs when surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are warmer than normal, which results in a better chance for precipitation.<\/p>\n

Michelle L\u2019Heureux, a climate scientist for NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center, said Southwest Colorado has been in a \u201cneutral\u201d weather pattern since the effects of La Ni\u00f1a subsided a few months ago.<\/p>\n

The latest predictions, however, show there\u2019s a 70 percent chance El Ni\u00f1o will take hold this fall.<\/p>\n

\u201cOdds favor the formation of El Ni\u00f1o coming up into the fall and lasting through the winter,\u201d L\u2019Heureux said. \u201cBut the emphasis is on \u2018odds.\u2019 It\u2019s not a guarantee.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Climate Prediction Center bases its forecast of a coming El Ni\u00f1o on a number of variables. The center evaluates conditions daily to determine whether El Ni\u00f1o is building. Conditions typical of an El Ni\u00f1o need to persist for several months before the center can officially declare it an El Ni\u00f1o year, L\u2019Heureux said.<\/p>\n

jromeo@durangoherald.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

there\u2019s a 70 percent chance this fall<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":98622,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5736,5735],"tags":[21,88],"naviga_topic":[],"class_list":["post-98621","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-local-news","category-news","tag-cortez","tag-weather-news"],"acf":[],"author_name":"dh_admin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98621","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98621"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98621\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98622"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98621"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98621"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98621"},{"taxonomy":"naviga_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/naviga_topic?post=98621"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}