{"id":94953,"date":"2019-03-27T10:47:43","date_gmt":"2019-03-27T16:47:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/rapid-snow-melt-could-intensify-416-fire-runoff\/"},"modified":"2019-03-27T10:47:43","modified_gmt":"2019-03-27T16:47:43","slug":"rapid-snow-melt-could-intensify-416-fire-runoff","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/rapid-snow-melt-could-intensify-416-fire-runoff\/","title":{"rendered":"Rapid snow melt could intensify 416 Fire runoff"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\"Tripp
Tripp Creek flooded near homes July 25, 2018, after heavy rain fell over the 416 Fire burn scar. High temperatures and rapid snow melt have the potential to cause flooding from the 416 Fire burn scar this spring.<\/span>Jerry McBride\/Durango Herald file<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

How bad the runoff from the 416 Fire burn scar will be is going to depend on how quickly the snow melts, Butch Knowlton, director of La Plata County\u2019s Office of Emergency Management, said Tuesday night.<\/p>\n

Speaking to more than 50 residents at the Animas Valley Grange, Knowlton reflected on how much difference a year makes.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat were we doing this time last year?\u201d he said. \u201cWe were sitting around worrying about no water and no snow.\u201d<\/p>\n

Indeed, last year\u2019s drought conditions set the stage for the 416 Fire, which sparked June 1 and went on to burn an estimated 54,000 acres of mostly San Juan National Forest land north of Durango.<\/p>\n

But the blaze itself is only one part of the 416 Fire\u2019s impact. Soils that have burned no longer have the ability to absorb water, so when heavy rains hit or when snow melts fast, there is the potential for destructive mudslides and debris flows.<\/p>\n

These fears were realized in a series of flooding events in July and September.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt was quick, and we couldn\u2019t predict it real well,\u201d Knowlton said of those floods. \u201cWhen it rained a third of an inch in a short period, we saw huge volumes of ash and debris and rock coming out of ravines and canyons.\u201d<\/p>\n

This past winter has been a different story, with consistent storms bringing the region\u2019s snowpack to 163 percent of normal, historic averages as of Monday. Knowlton said he\u2019s heard reports that snowpack at the headwaters of Hermosa Creek is 10 to 12 feet deep.<\/p>\n

The fear now, Knowlton said, is that high temperatures could cause the snow to melt fast or rains could hit the snowpack \u2013 both carry the risk of heavy flooding.<\/p>\n

\u201cI wish I could tell you it\u2019s going to be good or it\u2019s going to be bad, but I can\u2019t,\u201d he said. \u201cIf you tell me what the temperature is going to be in the next four to five weeks, I can tell you how much water is going to come down.\u201d<\/p>\n

Knowlton also said it\u2019s critical nighttime temperatures remain cold.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf at night it stops freezing at upper elevations, we\u2019re going to have a lot of water in the valley,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd we\u2019re going to get in trouble. There is a potential for some bad days.\u201d<\/p>\n

To prepare, Knowlton said emergency officials plan to install temperature and rain gauges around the Animas Valley and 416 Fire burn scar. Officials also say it\u2019s likely the portable radar system will return to help track storms. And, he urged residents to sign up for the county\u2019s emergency notification system.<\/p>\n

The National Resource Conservation Service is offering to help private landowners mitigate their property for flooding risks. But most of that work can\u2019t occur until crews can get out on the ground, after the snow melts.<\/p>\n

Knowlton said the areas most at risk are homes in the path of Tripp, Buck and Dyke creeks.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe still have a lot of homes \u2026 that were built in natural hazard zones,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

One resident commented that the drainage that damaged the KOA Campground last summer wasn\u2019t considered a high-risk area.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think everyone has to be worried if they\u2019re around a drainage,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Brian Devine, water and air-quality program manager at San Juan Basin Public Health, said water and sediment samples were taken at affected areas, including the Animas Consolidated Ditch.<\/p>\n

None of the samples had metal concentrations that held concerns for agriculture, livestock or recreation. And most residents in the Animas Valley get their drinking water from groundwater sources.<\/p>\n

As for how water quality will be affected during spring runoff, Devine said there\u2019s still a lot of unknowns. Most of the forest burned at low to moderate intensity, and already, officials are starting to see vegetation regrowth, he said.<\/p>\n

Devine said that, like usual, water quality will typically worsen during storm events. But he doesn\u2019t have concerns it will have lasting impacts.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t expect anything other than those peaks during storm events,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

jromeo@durangoherald.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

temperatures, chance of rain raise flooding risk<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":41549,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5736,5735],"tags":[2838,1920,3834,971,1497,884],"naviga_topic":[],"class_list":["post-94953","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-local-news","category-news","tag-416-fire","tag-animas-valley","tag-emergency-management-director-butch-knowlton","tag-emergency-planning","tag-flood","tag-hermosa"],"acf":[],"author_name":"dh_admin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94953","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94953"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94953\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41549"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94953"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94953"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94953"},{"taxonomy":"naviga_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/naviga_topic?post=94953"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}