At lower elevations, weather stations are tracking far less precipitation, and Wetlaufer said that can have an impact in predicting spring runoff and the amount of water that will be available in spring and summer.<\/p>\n
\u201cConsidering that lower elevations cover much more land area, getting snowfall there can make a difference,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
While there\u2019s still plenty of winter left in Southwest Colorado, conditions so far are raising cause for alarm.<\/p>\n
Most storms this winter have tracked north of low lying areas around Durango, so while the high country may show about average snowpack, lower elevations are not getting the amount of precipitation they usually see.<\/p>\n
At a few weather stations in low-elevation settings at Durango-La Plata County Airport and in Cortez, records show less than a half inch of precipitation since Jan. 1. That\u2019s down more than an inch from the 30-year average.<\/p>\n
And as of last week, the U.S. Drought Monitor had the lower areas of La Plata and Montezuma counties listed in a \u201csevere drought\u201d category.<\/p>\n
To make matters worse, Wetlaufer said a dry summer and fall caused vegetation and other ground fuels to dry out. So when spring snowmelt does occur, a good amount of moisture will be soaked into the ground before hitting rivers and streams.<\/p>\n
\u201cAcross the Southwest now, the concern is how much water will have to replenish the soil moisture before it gets into streams,\u201d he said. \u201cSo even if we have normal snowpack, we\u2019re expecting slightly below average stream flows.\u201d<\/p>\n
Frank Kugel, director of the Southwestern Water Conservation District, listed the inflow forecast predictions for a number of area reservoirs, all expected to come in below normal.<\/p>\n At Navajo Reservoir it is 68%, at Lemon Reservoir it\u2019s 73% and at Vallecito Reservoir it\u2019s 75%.<\/p>\n With snowpack in the high country about average, the fact that forecasts are coming in below normal is a sign that lower elevations haven\u2019t received the snows they typically do, Kugel said. River forecasters are also having to take into account the amount of water that\u2019s going to be soaked up by the thirsty landscape.<\/p>\n \u201cConditions in the high country look impressive, and one would think we\u2019re headed to a normal runoff season, but unfortunately, we have to look backwards to our terribly dry summer and early autumn \u2026 that depleted soil moisture,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Kugel said because of the heavy snowfall in winter 2018-19, most water managers are optimistic that the carryover will help reservoirs fill up this year.<\/p>\n \u201cThe reservoir storage carryover was good, that\u2019s the encouraging part,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd we still have a significant portion of winter ahead of us, and so it\u2019s hopeful that things will improve or at least not worsen.\u201d<\/p>\n Julie Korb, a Fort Lewis College biology professor who specializes in fire ecology, said it is far too soon to predict whether a lack of snow in low elevations will heighten fire danger come summer.<\/p>\n But, if temperatures continue to remain mild, and winter storms fail to deliver snow, already drought-stricken forests could further dry out, amping up fire danger.<\/p>\n \u201cFires are all about fuels, because fuels are really what drive fires,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n There are so many variables that drive fire danger, though, Korb said. Sometimes, a strong winter snowpack will boost vegetation, and then if a drought strikes in summer, there\u2019s more fuels to spark a major fire.<\/p>\n As for now, she said it is a waiting game to see how it plays out.<\/p>\n \u201cHopefully, winter will kick in, that\u2019s my hope,\u201d she said. \u201cBut time will tell what will happen.\u201d<\/p>\n