{"id":66760,"date":"2019-08-16T20:54:11","date_gmt":"2019-08-17T02:54:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wet-winter-doesnt-end-climate-change-risk-to-colorado-river\/"},"modified":"2019-08-17T02:54:11","modified_gmt":"2019-08-17T02:54:11","slug":"wet-winter-doesnt-end-climate-change-risk-to-colorado-river","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wet-winter-doesnt-end-climate-change-risk-to-colorado-river\/","title":{"rendered":"Wet winter doesn\u2019t end climate change risk to Colorado River"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"About
About 40 million people in Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming draw from the Colorado River and its tributaries. Much of that originates as snow. A wet winter likely will fend off mandated water shortages for states in the U.S. West that rely on the river but won\u2019t erase the impact of climate change. Climate change means the region is still getting drier and hotter.<\/span>Ross D. Franklin\/Associated Press file<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Climate change means the region is still getting drier and hotter.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt only demonstrates the wide swings we have to manage going forward,\u201d James Eklund, former director of the Upper Colorado River Commission, an interstate agency that ensures river water is doled out properly, said earlier this year. \u201cYou can put an ice cube \u2013 even an excellent ice cube \u2013 in a cup of hot coffee, but eventually it\u2019s going to disappear.\u201d<\/p>\n

For the seven states relying on the Colorado River, which carries melted snow from the Rocky Mountains to the Gulf of California, that means a future with increasingly less water for farms and cities.<\/p>\n

Climate scientists say it\u2019s hard to predict how much less. The river supplies 40 million people in Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming as well as a $5-billion-a-year agricultural industry.<\/p>\n

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation on Thursday will release its projections for next year\u2019s supply from Lake Mead, a key reservoir that feeds Colorado River water to Nevada, Arizona, California and Mexico.<\/p>\n

After a wet winter, the agency is not expected to require any states to take cuts to their share of water.<\/p>\n

But that doesn\u2019t mean conditions are improving long term. Arizona, Nevada and Mexico could give up some water voluntarily in 2020 under a drought contingency plan approved by the seven states earlier this year.<\/p>\n

Here is a look at the Colorado River amid climate change:<\/p>\n

Colorado River flow. Much of the water in the Colorado River and its tributaries originates as snow.<\/em>As temperatures rise and demand grows, the water supply declines. Even if more snow and rain fell, it wouldn\u2019t necessarily all end up in the river. Plants will suck up more water, and it will evaporate quicker.<\/p>\n

Brad Udall, a water and climate research scientist at Colorado State University, said the river\u2019s flow could decrease even further to 20% by 2050 and 35% by 2100.<\/p>\n

\u201cOn any given day, it\u2019s hotter, we have more days for a growing season to occur, we have a thirstier atmosphere,\u201d he said. \u201cWhen you put all those things together, you lose flow in the river.\u201d<\/p>\n

Climate change. Climate change doesn\u2019t mean the American West will be hot and dry all the time. Extreme swings in weather are expected as part of a changing climate \u2013 something Udall has called \u201cweather whiplash.\u201d<\/em>The Southwest got a reprieve this year with average and above-average snowfall after a year that sent many states into extreme drought. Nearly empty reservoirs quickly rose, including Lake Mead and Lake Powell \u2013 the largest humanmade reservoirs in the country that hold Colorado River water.<\/p>\n

The lakes still are far below capacity, steadily declining since 2000 with a bigger spike after winter 2011.<\/p>\n

A wet year interrupting years of dryness isn\u2019t uncommon.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re very thankful for this gain in wet hydrology and storage in the reservoirs that happened this year, but we know we can lose it just as fast,\u201d said Carly Jerla with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.<\/p>\n

Drought. Many states declared an end to short-term drought this year, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor, which looks at land conditions.<\/em>The map is produced by the National Drought Migration Center, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.<\/p>\n

But not all agencies use the same indicators for drought.<\/p>\n

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation uses Lake Mead on the Nevada-Arizona border and Lake Powell on the Arizona-Utah border. The reservoirs were nearly full in 1999 before the agency declared a drought the next year that hasn\u2019t let up. As of Monday, Lake Powell was 57% full and Lake Mead was 39% full.<\/p>\n

Jerla says the bureau won\u2019t say the drought is over until those reservoirs fill completely, which won\u2019t happen without consecutive years of wet weather.<\/p>\n

Protecting the river. The seven states that rely on the Colorado River signed a plan earlier this year to protect the waterway from climate change and keep Lake Mead and Lake Powell fuller.<\/em>The drought contingency plan is meant to keep the reservoirs from dropping so low that they cannot deliver water or produce hydropower amid prolonged drought and climate change.<\/p>\n

Nevada, California and Arizona voluntarily would give up water when Lake Mead reaches certain levels, as would Mexico, which also gets a portion of water from the river. The deal will expire in 2026, and the states will begin negotiating new guidelines next year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

40 million people in Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming draw from the Colorado River and its tributaries. Much of that originates as snow. A wet winter likely will fend off mandated water shortages for states in the U.S. West that rely on the river but won\u2019t erase the impact of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":66761,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[28],"naviga_topic":[],"class_list":["post-66760","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-headlines"],"acf":[],"author_name":"dh_admin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66760","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66760"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66760\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66761"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66760"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66760"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66760"},{"taxonomy":"naviga_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/naviga_topic?post=66760"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}