{"id":53027,"date":"2020-06-22T23:02:13","date_gmt":"2020-06-23T05:02:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/coloradans-are-moving-freely-will-a-second-coronavirus-wave-follow\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T04:02:37","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T10:02:37","slug":"coloradans-are-moving-freely-will-a-second-coronavirus-wave-follow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/coloradans-are-moving-freely-will-a-second-coronavirus-wave-follow\/","title":{"rendered":"Coloradans are moving freely. Will a second coronavirus wave follow?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\"Shoppers
Shoppers maintain one-way traffic patterns at the Palisade Farmers Market in Palisade on June 14. The market runs every Sunday through Sept. 20.<\/span>Barton Glasser\/The Colorado Sun<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

In Larimer County, as June barrels into July and Colorado nears the end of its fourth month mired in the coronavirus pandemic, Colorado State University professor Jude Bayham has noticed a trend: There are a lot more people visiting restaurants than there were in April and May.<\/p>\n

This observation comes not so much from his personal life as from his professional one. Bayham is an economist who studies \u201cavoidance behavior\u201d \u2013 how people respond to known risks. During the pandemic, he has become one of the experts looking at mobility data for the state\u2019s epidemiological modeling team, the group that is creating predictions about how the virus will spread so that policymakers like Gov. Jared Polis can decide how to respond. Bayham charts these mobility numbers on graphs comparing them with mobility patterns from 2019.<\/p>\n

And what he has seen in the last couple of weeks is clear: Coloradans across much of the state are almost back to moving around at pre-pandemic levels. At restaurants, salons and clothing stores, Coloradans in many counties are approaching near-normal levels of activity.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is clearly an increase in these mobility measures, however you want to cut it,\u201d Bayham said. \u201cPeople are spending more time out in public.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"A
A chart showing visits to restaurants in select Colorado counties during the coronavirus pandemic as compared to the same time period in 2019. This chart was created by Colorado State University professor Jude Bayham using data from the company SafeGraph.<\/span>Jude Bayham\/via The Colorado Sun<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"A
A chart showing visits to personal care services businesses, such as salons, in select Colorado counties during the coronavirus pandemic as compared to the same time period in 2019. This chart was created by Colorado State University professor Jude Bayham using data from the company SafeGraph.<\/span>Jude Bayham\/via The Colorado Sun<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

The trend comes as Colorado increasingly allows the reopening of businesses seen as among the riskiest for spread of the coronavirus \u2013 places like casinos and bars, both of which are now able to operate at limited capacity.<\/p>\n

And it also comes as states that began reopening their economies around the same time as Colorado are seeing worrying spikes in COVID-19 cases. In a recent Twitter thread, Andy Slavitt, the former Obama administration health official who has become a wonky celebrity for his nightly pandemic summaries, lumped Colorado with 13 other states in a group he called \u201cthe rabbits\u201d \u2013 the states that reopened first. Through mid-June, the rabbits had seen a 26% increase in case growth, he wrote. Only two states in the group \u2013 Colorado and Indiana \u2013 had defied the trend and seen their daily case numbers decline.<\/p>\n

On June 19, Dr. Rachel Herlihy, Colorado\u2019s state epidemiologist, said health officials here are watching case spikes in neighboring states like Arizona and Utah warily.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe modeling data has been quite favorable\u201d in Colorado recently, she said. \u201cBut we certainly are being cautious. We know from the experience of those states \u2026 that we\u2019re really dependent on human behavior.\u201d<\/p>\n

An outbreak recently of more than 100 new cases in Boulder tied to University Hill parties and anti-racism protests has pushed Colorado\u2019s numbers slightly higher in recent days and shows how quickly the virus could surge anew.<\/p>\n

But, when the state released its daily case counts June 19, the numbers continued to show good news overall. Hospitalizations for COVID-19 have dropped to their lowest number since March. The rate of people testing positive for the virus remained below public health benchmarks.<\/p>\n

So, as Colorado continues to reopen while avoiding a second wave of the virus, it raises a question: Are we actually good at coronavirus life or are we just lucky?<\/p>\n

\u201cI think we\u2019re both,\u201d said Dr. Mark Johnson, executive director of Jefferson County Public Health. \u201cAnd I think we don\u2019t know the answer to that question.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Diners
Diners eat at Henry&#x2019;s 16th Street Tavern &#x2013; with masked servers &#x2013; on May 29. Gov. Jared Polis allowed restaurants to reopen with social distancing and cleaning rules earlier in the week.<\/span>Eric Lubbers\/The Colorado Sun<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>
Staying at home is not the only answer<\/div>\n

Experts say that people moving around more is not necessarily a bad thing. It\u2019s all about how people move around.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt doesn\u2019t matter so much what the government does in terms of relaxing stay-at-home measures if people are still adhering to the guidelines,\u201d said Dr. Eric Toner, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore. \u201cIf people are wearing masks and maintaining social distance, then you wouldn\u2019t expect to see a huge increase in cases as things reopen.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cSo it may be,\u201d Toner said, \u201cthat Coloradans are just really good people and are following advice.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bayham, the CSU professor, agreed that could be the case. The mobility figures he looks at only capture where people go and for how long. They don\u2019t show what people do when they get where they are going.<\/p>\n

The data are collected from a sample of mobile devices \u2013 smartphones, mostly, but also smart watches and similar gear. The figures are anonymized, meaning they are stripped of identification information, and then they are also aggregated at the census block level. Bayham said he can\u2019t track any individual person\u2019s movements \u2013 nor does he want to. The value is in the big picture.<\/p>\n

Early on in the pandemic, Bayham said the connection between mobility and viral transmission was really clear. The more people moved around, the more the virus spread.<\/p>\n

But, after a big crash in mobility around the time Polis issued the statewide stay-at-home order, the state has actually been seeing increasing mobility since late-April, Bayham said. And, this time, increased movement didn\u2019t closely correspond with increased viral transmission.<\/p>\n

\"A
A chart showing the average hours spent at home per day by Coloradans during the coronavirus pandemic. The dashed vertical lines show when stay-at-home orders were issued and when they were lifted. This chart was created by Colorado State University professor Jude Bayham using data from the company SafeGraph.<\/span>Jude Bayham\/via The Colorado Sun<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

Bayham said this is likely because people in Colorado are venturing forth into a changed world. They are more cautious. The places they are visiting are cleaner. Everything is better geared toward stopping the virus.<\/p>\n

For instance, while visits to restaurants have almost returned to normal in many places, Bayham said it\u2019s possible that the visits now are mostly quick stops to pick up takeout \u2013 as opposed to longer visits for eat-in dining, pre-pandemic. (He hopes to dig deeper into this question soon.)<\/p>\n

\u201cYou can think about these mobility patterns as a precondition for transmission,\u201d Bayham said. \u201cIt\u2019s necessary for transmission to occur. But just because people are in a place where the virus is present is not sufficient for transmission.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Erika
Erika Gurnett adds a cinch lock to the sleeves of the earloops of a face mask as one step in the mask-making process at Phunkshun Wear in Denver. Phunkshun Wear donates a mask for every mask it sells.<\/span>Kevin Mohatt\/Special to The Colorado Sun<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>
The mask factor<\/div>\n

Toner said the states that haven\u2019t kept control of the virus after reopening have a few things in common. They tend to have weaker health systems where many people struggle to access care. While Colorado has specifically tried to get coronavirus testing sites into underprivileged communities, other states have not.<\/p>\n

And Colorado\u2019s weather also may play a factor, Toner said. We are a state that generally goes outdoors in the summer instead of huddling inside in the air-conditioning to avoid oppressive heat and humidity. The risk of transmission is dramatically lower outdoors, Toner said.<\/p>\n

But one trait stands above the rest.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think the states that are doing poorly now are the states where their governors have been more relaxed about public health messaging, more eager to open things up and not strictly adhering to the guidance about the pace at which things should open up,\u201d Toner said.<\/p>\n

And a big part of that public health messaging \u2013 the flashpoint in the latest public health culture war \u2013 is encouraging people to wear masks. Ever since he wore one at a news conference in the first week of April, Polis has been a frequent and fervent champion of the face mask.<\/p>\n

\"Colorado
Colorado Gov. Jared Polis speaks to reporters while wearing a mask in Centennial on April 3.<\/span>Jesse Paul\/The Colorado Sun file<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

The science on homemade masks and coronavirus is still a work in progress, said May Chu, an internationally renowned disease researcher who teaches at the Colorado School of Public Health. But she said the overwhelming consensus is that wearing masks in public is safer than not.<\/p>\n

She put the benefit at a few percentage points of difference. If a person in a given situation has a 25% chance of being infected by the coronavirus, Chu said wearing a mask might knock the risk down closer to 20%. But that\u2019s only if people are also washing their hands and following distancing guidelines.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you don\u2019t do all the other practices, it\u2019s probably not statistically significant,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

And homemade masks can actually be quite good. Think of the now-familiar N95 masks as being 95% efficient, she said. The throw-away surgical masks that doctors often wear are about 30% efficient. But a homemade mask with enough layers of the right material could get to 50% efficiency.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s why she\u2019s a big believer that diligent mask-wearing can make a meaningful impact as life returns to normal-ish. And, though she said there is no detailed data on Coloradans\u2019 mask-wearing behavior, she said she\u2019s been encouraged seeing widespread adoption when she goes out in public.<\/p>\n

\u201cWithin the community, wearing a mask should be a sign of respectfulness,\u201d Chu said. \u201cYou are respecting the dangers (the virus) might cause to others.\u201d<\/p>\n

Johnson with Jefferson County Public Health praised Polis for making decisions based on data and science \u2013 including promoting mask-wearing. That doesn\u2019t mean he\u2019s not a little nervous about Colorado\u2019s reopening economy. Johnson said he wished the state had moved more incrementally instead of reopening large chunks at once \u2013 which will make it more difficult to know what is to blame if cases spike.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt appears that some of the things that opened up quicker were because people screamed the loudest,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

But Johnson also said everybody is learning as they go. And, as the state\u2019s reopening goes right now, it\u2019s so far, so good.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople are going to be studying this for at least the next 100 years trying to figure out what did we do right and what did we do wrong,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The Colorado Sun is a reader-supported, journalist-owned news outlet exploring issues of statewide interest. Sign up for a newsletter and read more at coloradosun.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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