{"id":50503,"date":"2020-11-11T02:30:12","date_gmt":"2020-11-11T09:30:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/why-another-colorado-lockdown-is-unlikely-even-as-situation-worsens\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T03:51:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T09:51:40","slug":"why-another-colorado-lockdown-is-unlikely-even-as-situation-worsens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/why-another-colorado-lockdown-is-unlikely-even-as-situation-worsens\/","title":{"rendered":"Why another Colorado lockdown is unlikely, even as situation worsens"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\"Julianna
Julianna Sandoval, 24, pauses for a COVID-19 nasal swab test from Dr. Sarah Rowan from Denver Health Medical Center. Rowan and other medical staff administered a free drive-up COVID-19 testing in the parking lot of Abraham Lincoln High School on November 7, 2020.<\/span>Kathryn Scott\/Special to The Colorado Sun<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

Coloradans are more likely to encounter someone with coronavirus now than at any point during the pandemic, state health officials say. Hospitalizations because of COVID-19 have surged to a new high. The state\u2019s health care capacity is at risk of being overwhelmed in a matter of weeks.<\/p>\n

Yet Gov. Jared Polis<\/a> has declined to place Colorado under statewide lockdown status as he did in the spring, when the prevalence of coronavirus appears to have been less than it is now.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is not about lockdowns. It hasn\u2019t been about lockdowns since March or April. It\u2019s about an aggressive, balanced approach that\u2019s not being implemented,\u201d Polis said in an interview with The Colorado Sun, echoing Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force.<\/p>\n

Polis said he feels it\u2019s a matter of ensuring Coloradans follow the public health recommendations he\u2019s been harping on for months and taking action on the local level.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt this point, people know what they need to do to contain the virus,\u201d Polis said. \u201cHow do we know that? They did it in August. We avoided that second wave that hit the Sun Belt.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Sun interviewed Polis and Colorado\u2019s top epidemiologist, Dr. Rachel Herlihy,<\/a> about why they aren\u2019t pursuing another statewide lockdown and how they plan to tackle the most recent surge of COVID-19 in the state. Here\u2019s what they said:<\/p>\n

Why a lockdown isn\u2019t appropriate now<\/div>\n
Another lockdown \u2014 or so-called stay-at-home order \u2014 isn\u2019t warranted, Polis said, because of the advances Colorado and the world have made toward understanding and managing coronavirus.<\/div>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re learning a lot more,\u201d Polis said. \u201cIn March and April, we had very little testing. Negligible testing relative to the size of the infection rate. Quite literally, it was impossible to find out who was contagious. It was impossible to screen asymptomatic people out from working in nursing homes and as first responders.\u201d<\/div>\n
Now, Colorado has the capacity to test tens of thousands of people a day between the state\u2019s own lab and private testing providers.<\/div>\n

Treatment protocols for COVID-19 have also dramatically improved, driving down death from where it was in the spring, Polis said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fatality rate for people who were hospitalized was around 20%. One in five who entered the hospital in March and April didn\u2019t make it out,\u201d he said. \u201cNow that\u2019s down to about 5%. Still very deadly, still tragic for many families. But one quarter the fatality rate of the initial wave.\u201d<\/p>\n

Finally, Polis said Colorado\u2019s hospital capacity \u2014 both in terms of supplies and beds \u2014 has been dramatically expanded since the spring. That includes emergency care sites, like the field hospital built at the Colorado Convention Center, and also internal work hospital systems have done to prepare.<\/p>\n

The governor said one persistent issue is the shortage in health care personnel.<\/p>\n

Dr. Herlihy, who works for the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, agreed with Polis\u2019 assessment.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur understanding of this virus has really evolved in the last couple of months,\u201d she said. \u201cSo we have the tools in our public health and health care toolbox.\u201d<\/p>\n

How much does the economy factor into the governor\u2019s decision-making?<\/p>\n

The governor said he considers both health and economic impacts when imposing new coronavirus restrictions, though oftentimes they go hand in hand, especially when it comes to lockdowns.<\/p>\n

\u201cLockdowns are not healthy for people,\u201d he said. \u201cI think we knew that in March, but we had to take the lesser of two evils given where we were.\u201d<\/p>\n

The adverse effects include mental health challenges as well as people\u2019s tendency to avoid routine medical care.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a very blunt instrument,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

A new lockdown could also lead to more job losses, and that has implications ranging from people becoming homeless to Coloradans not being able to buy groceries, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s all part of the larger public health picture,\u201d he said. \u201c\u2026 The public health toll and the economic toll of lockdowns is extensive.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Lt.
Lt. Col. Larry Dale Caswell, Albuquerque district commander for the Army Corps of Engineers, speaks to reporters on Friday, April 10, 2020, in the Colorado Convention Center, which is being turned into a makeshift coronavirus hospital.<\/span>Jesse Paul\/The Colorado Sun<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

Is a statewide lockdown 100% off the table?<\/p>\n

No, Polis said. But it appears to be very unlikely.<\/p>\n

Polis said he would really only consider implementing another statewide lockdown if Colorado\u2019s health care capacity starts to get overwhelmed. That hasn\u2019t happened yet and the overflow capacity the state spent millions of dollars building hasn\u2019t been utilized. Some of the overflow sites have even shut down.<\/p>\n

\u201cLook, if the Convention Center is filling up and there\u2019s not enough beds, then we simply look at the lesser of two evils and the calculation might change,\u201d Polis said. \u201cCertainly I share the goal with everybody in Colorado to avoid a lockdown, really, however we can.\u201d<\/p>\n

Right now, he is focused on deploying as many tools as possible \u2014 increased testing, better treatment protocols, contact tracing, less-serious restrictions \u2014 to prevent the state from reaching the point where a lockdown may be needed.<\/p>\n

Will overnight curfews work?<\/div>\n

Even if a statewide lockdown doesn\u2019t happen, a number of cities and counties could be forced to shut in their residents if coronavirus caseloads and hospitalizations keep increasing. State health officials have made it clear that they don\u2019t want that to happen, so they\u2019ve endorsed other, new approaches.<\/p>\n

One of those approaches has been the overnight curfew. In the past two weeks, Adams County, Denver and Pueblo have enacted them in an attempt to stave off a lockdown and drive down cases.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe want to do everything that we can to avoid (a lockdown),\u201d Bob McDonald, head of the Denver Department of Public Health and Environment, said Friday as he announced Denver\u2019s 30-day curfew.<\/p>\n

But at the same time, McDonald didn\u2019t provide proof that the strategy would work and conceded that the city has tried many things to drive down coronavirus cases and hospitalizations and they haven\u2019t worked.<\/p>\n

Herlihy said she\u2019s hopeful the curfews will be effective because case numbers are growing fastest among people in their 20s and 30s.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe do know that population is the group of individuals that is, probably, most likely to be out in the evenings, to be socializing, to potentially be in households or bars or other locations where transmission could readily occur,\u201d she said. \u201cWe also know when alcohol is involved that individuals\u2019 judgment can lapse and that can certainly contribute to risky behavior and transmission of the virus.\u201d<\/p>\n

What about the confusing county-by-county approach?<\/p>\n

Throughout the pandemic, Colorado has battled to keep people informed as cities and counties enact area-specific rules aimed at slowing the spread of COVID-19. What may not be allowed in Denver, may be OK in Aurora.<\/p>\n

Polis acknowledged this during a recent news conference, saying that people across the state should be taking as many precautions as possible and not trying to find local loopholes or exceptions.<\/p>\n

\u201cNobody should be staying home and not socializing because they are in this county or that county,\u201d he said. \u201cYou should be doing it everywhere in our state right now. Cancel your plans to see others who are not in your household for the next few weeks. Put them off.\u201d<\/p>\n

That said, when Polis announced Colorado\u2019s first statewide lockdown on March 25, he did so, in part, because of conflicting rules across the state. He worried that if people in Denver were ordered to shelter in place and people in Weld County weren\u2019t, it would create a situation where Denverites would crowd into Weld County.<\/p>\n

\u201cMore and more people are going to fewer and fewer stores and retailers in fewer and fewer locations, creating a greater public health crisis,\u201d he said at the time.<\/p>\n

This is also worth noting: The governor has in the past cast doubt on the efficacy and enforceability of implementing certain COVID-19 restrictions only to turn around and enact them days later. That\u2019s how the first statewide lockdown came about, as well as Colorado\u2019s statewide mask-wearing mandate.<\/p>\n

Is it safe to patronize businesses?<\/div>\n

The governor is now urging Coloradans to avoid interacting with people outside of their households for the next few weeks.<\/p>\n

So does that mean people should stop patronizing businesses and visiting restaurants?<\/p>\n

Polis says no.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe science shows that the biggest risk for transmission is if you\u2019re in that 10- to 15-minute range within six feet of somebody,\u201d he said. \u201cThat is what happens in a normal social environment. When you see your friends, you\u2019re with them for more than 15 to 20 minutes. You might be with them for a few hours. That is a much greater risk than going to a clothing store and buying a shirt and checking out while you\u2019re wearing a mask and the person behind the counter is wearing a mask.\u201d<\/p>\n

Polis said for people who still want to patronize restaurants, the most important thing is to not go with people outside of your own household.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you\u2019re meeting four other people from four other houses, you are increasing the likelihood of you getting the virus exponentially. That\u2019s what we want to avoid,\u201d he said. \u201cGoing out with your family: low to medium risk. The higher risk is if you\u2019re interacting with people from different households in sustained ways, especially indoors.\u201d<\/p>\n

Is Colorado\u2019s contact-tracing system working?<\/p>\n

Colorado health officials\u2019 goal has been to contact trace up to 500 coronavirus cases a day. Since Oct. 14, the state has had a seven-day average case count in excess of 1,000.<\/p>\n

In recent days, there have been more than 3,000 new cases reported.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere certainly is strain on our public health systems,\u201d Herlihy said. \u201cThere\u2019s strain on our contact-tracing systems.\u201d<\/p>\n

Herlihy said that\u2019s what makes the new Exposure Notifications Express smartphone system being offered to Coloradans so critical. It can alert people to when they\u2019ve been exposed to someone who later tests positive for coronavirus and does the work of a contact tracer automatically.<\/p>\n

Read more at The Colorado Sun<\/em><\/p>\n

The Colorado Sun is a reader-supported, journalist-owned news outlet exploring issues of statewide interest. Sign up for a newsletter and read more at coloradosun.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Read more at The Colorado Sun<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u2018We\u2019re learning a lot more,\u2019 Polis says<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":50504,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[233,685,28,29],"naviga_topic":[],"class_list":["post-50503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-coloradosun-com","tag-coronavirus-covid-19","tag-headlines","tag-newsletter"],"acf":[],"author_name":"dh_admin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50503","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50503"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50503\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87762,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50503\/revisions\/87762"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50504"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50503"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50503"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50503"},{"taxonomy":"naviga_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/naviga_topic?post=50503"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}