{"id":46633,"date":"2021-05-24T13:57:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-24T19:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/grim-western-fire-season-starts-much-drier-than-record-2020\/"},"modified":"2021-05-24T19:57:00","modified_gmt":"2021-05-24T19:57:00","slug":"grim-western-fire-season-starts-much-drier-than-record-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/grim-western-fire-season-starts-much-drier-than-record-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Grim western fire season starts much drier than record 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"FILE
FILE – In this Oct. 27, 2020, file photo, Herman Termeer, 54, stands on the roof of his home as the Blue Ridge Fire burns along the hillside in Chino Hills, Calif. Scientists say the outlook for the western U.S. fire season is grim because it's starting far drier than 2020's record-breaking fire year. (AP Photo\/Jae C. Hong, File)<\/span>Jae C. Hong<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

As bad as last year\u2019s record-shattering fire season was, the western U.S. starts this year\u2019s in even worse shape.<\/p>\n

The soil in the West is record dry for this time of year. In much of the region, plants that fuel fires are also the driest scientists have seen. The vegetation is primed to ignite, especially in the Southwest where dead juniper trees<\/a> are full of flammable needles.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s like having gasoline out there,\u201d said Brian Steinhardt, forest fire zone manager for Prescott and Coconino national forests in Arizona.<\/p>\n

A climate change-fueled megadrought of more than 20 years is making conditions that lead to fire even more dangerous, scientists said. Rainfall in the Rockies and farther west was the second lowest<\/a> on record in April, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt means that the dice are loaded toward a lot of forest fire this year,\u201d said Park Williams, a UCLA climate and fire scientist, who calculated that soil<\/a> in the western half of the nation is the driest it has been since 1895. \u201cThis summer we\u2019re going into fire season with drier fuels than we were at this time last year.\u201d<\/p>\n

In addition, the western drought is deepening week by week.<\/p>\n

In late March, less than one-third of California was suffering extreme or exceptional drought. Now more than 73% is, according to the National Drought Monitor<\/a>, which is based on precipitation, temperature, soil moisture and streamflow measurements. A year ago, heading into the record-smashing 2020 fire year when more than 4% of California burned<\/a>, just 3% of the state was in extreme or exceptional drought.<\/p>\n

But the outlook is worse elsewhere.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think the Southwest is really primed for a bad fire season,\u201d University of Utah fire scientist Phil Dennison said. That\u2019s because last year\u2019s normal monsoon season, which brings much of the year\u2019s rainfall, never showed up.<\/p>\n

A year ago, none of Arizona, Nevada and Utah was in extreme or exceptional drought, but now more than 90% of Utah, 86% of Arizona and 75% of Nevada is in those highest drought categories, according to the drought monitor. New Mexico jumped from 4% extreme or exceptional drought a year ago to more than 77% now.<\/p>\n

UCLA meteorologist Daniel Swain, who also works for the National Center for Atmospheric Research and The Nature Conservancy, said key factors going into fire season are soil and plant wetness.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo is soil moisture very low? Is vegetation extremely dry? Absolutely, yes. Unequivocally, yes. Pretty much everywhere in California and the Southwest,” Swain said. \u201cSo that box is checked big time in a way that is going to massively increase the potential background flammability … given a spark, given extreme weather conditions.\u201d<\/p>\n

This doesn\u2019t necessarily ensure the 2021 fire season will be worse than 2020. Last year more than 15,800 square miles (40,960 square kilometers) of the United States burned, an area about the size of Maryland and Delaware combined. Several scientists said last year\u2019s fires were stoked not just by hot, dry conditions, but by unusual situations that made a bad year horrific:<\/p>\n

Two intense heat waves \u2014 one that nearly set a record for hottest temperature on Earth in Death Valley<\/a> \u2014 set the stage, and a freak California lightning barrage provided lots of spark.<\/p>\n

The lightning outbreak was the type that has happened only a few times in history and is unlikely to occur two years in a row, Swain said.<\/p>\n

\"This
This photo provided by the USDA Forest Service shows the different stages of dying juniper trees at the Prescott National Forest in Arizona on April 8, 2021. The juniper tress are dying from drought and that increases fire risk. As bad as last year's record-shattering fire season was, the U.S. West starts this year's fire season in even worse condition. (Benjamin Roe\/USDA Forest Service via AP)<\/span>Benjamin Roe<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cMaybe it won\u2019t be the hottest summer,” he said, adding. \u201cI\u2019m really grasping at straws here. All we have going for us is dumb luck.\u201d<\/p>\n

When the scientists see extremely dry or dying trees, they get even more worried.<\/p>\n

In Arizona, junipers are succumbing to the 20-year drought and its two-year intensification, said Joel McMillin, a forest health zone leader for the U.S. Forest Service there. Officials haven\u2019t done a precise count but anecdotally the die-off is 5% to 30% with some patches up to 60%.<\/p>\n

Until the dead needles drop to the ground, which takes a year or so, the fire hazard increases, fire manager Steinhardt said. \u201cSo you have something that\u2019s highly flammable and it\u2019s … 20-, 30-, 40-foot tall and every single one of those needles on there now becomes an ember that can be launched.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is probably one of the driest and potentially most challenging situations I\u2019ve been in,\u201d said the veteran of 32 fire seasons.<\/p>\n

In California, normally drought-tolerant blue oaks are dying around the San Francisco Bay Area, said Scott Stephens, a fire science professor at the University of California, Berkeley. \u201cThey don\u2019t have access to water. Soil moisture is so low. When you start to see blue oak dying, that gets your attention.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"FILE
FILE – In this April 28, 2021, file photo, a firefighter prepares to battle the North Fire from a backyard on Via Patina in Santa Clarita, Calif. Scientists say the outlook for the western U.S. fire season is grim because it's starting far drier than 2020's record-breaking fire year. (Emily Alvarenga\/The Santa Clarita Valley Signal via AP)<\/span>Emily Alvarenga<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Human-caused climate change and decades of fire suppression that increases fuel loads are aggravating fire conditions across the West, scientists said.<\/p>\n

Global warming has contributed to the megadrought and is making plants more prone to burning.<\/p>\n

Normally a good part of the sun\u2019s energy removes water from plants and soil, but when they are already dry, that energy instead makes the air hotter, which creates a feedback loop, Swain said.<\/p>\n

And drier conditions lead to beetle infestations that further weaken and kill trees, said University of Utah’s Dennison.<\/p>\n

For decades, U.S. firefighting agencies have tried to put out fires as quickly as possible, and that’s usually worked, UCLA’s Williams said. But the practice resulted in the buildup of dense trees, brush and other potential fire fuels.<\/p>\n

\u201cFire is escaping our control increasingly frequently,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd some of the reason for that might be because of increasing density of fuels. But we also see that these fires are escaping our control during record-breaking heat waves \u2014 and it\u2019s the warmest, driest years when we have the hardest time controlling fires.\u201d<\/p>\n

___<\/p>\n

Read stories on climate issues by The Associated Press at https:\/\/apnews.com\/hub\/climate<\/a><\/p>\n

___<\/p>\n

Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears<\/a>.<\/p>\n

___<\/p>\n

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute\u2019s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.<\/p>\n

\"This
This photo provided by the USDA Forest Service shows a dying juniper tree at the Prescott National Forest in Arizona on April 8, 2021. Scientists say the outlook for the western U.S. fire season is grim because it's starting far drier than 2020's record-breaking fire year. (Benjamin Roe\/USDA Forest Service via AP)<\/span>Benjamin Roe<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"In
In this photo provided by the USDA Forest Service is a branch of a dying juniper tree at the Prescott National Forest in Arizona on April 8, 2021. Anywhere from 5% to 30% of juniper trees at this forest are dead because of a devastating drought and fire officials say dead juniper trees are highly flammable, almost like having gasoline out there. Scientists say the outlook for the western U.S. fire season is grim because it's starting far drier than 2020's record-breaking fire year. (Benjamin Roe\/USDA Forest Service via AP)<\/span>Benjamin Roe<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"This
This photo provided by the USDA Forest Service shows how most juniper trees are alive but there are areas with a bright yellow appearance that show they are dying from drought in the Prescott National Forest in Arizona on April 8, 2021. Scientists say the outlook for the western U.S. fire season is grim because it's starting far drier than 2020's record-breaking fire year. (Benjamin Roe\/USDA Forest Service via AP)<\/span>Benjamin Roe<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"FILE
FILE – In this April 21, 2021, file photo, California Gov. Gavin Newsom holds a news conference in the parched basin of Lake Mendocino in Ukiah, Calif., where he announced he would proclaim a drought emergency for Mendocino and Sonoma counties. Scientists say the outlook for the western U.S. fire season is grim because it's starting far drier than 2020's record-breaking fire year. In late March, less than one-third of California was suffering extreme or exceptional drought. Now it's more than 73%, according to the National Drought Monitor, which is based on precipitation, temperature, soil moisture and streamflow measurements. (Kent Porter\/The Press Democrat via AP)<\/span>Kent Porter<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"FILE
FILE – In this Sept. 9, 2020, file photo, flames lick above vehicles on Highway 162 as the Bear Fire burns in Oroville, Calif. Scientists say the outlook for the western U.S. fire season is grim because it's starting far drier than 2020's record-breaking fire year.(AP Photo\/Noah Berger, File)<\/span>Noah Berger<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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