{"id":43343,"date":"2021-12-09T17:43:04","date_gmt":"2021-12-10T00:43:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/what-if-we-have-another-dry-winter-think-of-our-mountains-like-a-big-sponge\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T03:13:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T09:13:03","slug":"what-if-we-have-another-dry-winter-think-of-our-mountains-like-a-big-sponge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/what-if-we-have-another-dry-winter-think-of-our-mountains-like-a-big-sponge\/","title":{"rendered":"What if we have another dry winter? \u2018Think of our mountains like a big sponge\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\"Early
Early snow on Vermillion and Beattie peaks in the San Juan Mountains is giving people hope for a good ski season and water year. More snow is predicted in the mountains this week.<\/span>Jim Mimiaga\/The Journal file<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

Colorado is in the grips of a statewide drought.<\/p>\n

Rivers are down, reservoirs are below average and snowpack is minimal.<\/p>\n

Water managers and scientists say it is too early to tell if slow snowfall and the residual effects of a dry summer will affect next year\u2019s water resources in Southwest Colorado, but they will be watching abnormally high temperatures and La Ni\u00f1a closely.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think the message needs to be this is the very beginning of winter,\u201d said Steve Wolff, general manager of the Southwestern Water Conservation District. \u201cWe get our biggest snowfall as far as water content in March and April, so we\u2019re a long way off from knowing we\u2019re in trouble. But given the last two dry years we\u2019ve had, we certainly need to be prepared and talking about ways to ensure we\u2019re prepared if we do have another very dry year.\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not odd for water resources to be scarce in November, December and January before snow replenishes the drain of summer and fall. Stream flows and reservoirs usually hit their annual lows around this time of the year.<\/p>\n

Even for early December, water is in short supply.<\/p>\n

Data from the Southwester Water Conservation District shows the Animas River is running at about two-thirds<\/a> of its normal flow and the Piedra River near Arboles is flowing at a third.<\/p>\n

Elsewhere, the numbers are worse, with the Mancos River near Towaoc at 10% of its average flow and Los Pinos River near Ignacio at less than 5%.<\/p>\n

Some of these streams are low because reservoirs upstream are trying to restock after a long and dry summer, Wolff said. But reservoirs aren\u2019t faring much better.<\/p>\n

Navajo Reservoir sits at 67% of its usual water storage, and Lake Powell is less than half <\/a>its early December average, according to Colorado Climate Center data.<\/p>\n

Locally, Vallecito Reservoir is at 60% of its average and 26% of its storage capacity, and McPhee Reservoir is at 65% of its average and 43% of its capacity, said Robert Genualdi, the San Juan and Dolores River division engineer for Colorado\u2019s Division of Water Resources.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think it\u2019s just a reflection of the very dry summer we had,\u201d Wolff said.<\/p>\n

\"Projections
Projections from the National Resources Conservation Service based on historic data show a range of possibilities for snowpack this year with a below-average winter likely. Water managers and scientists say it is too early to tell what snowpack will look like this year, but it could have an impact on next year\u2019s water resources. (Courtesy of National Resources Conservation Service)<\/span>cca<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

The picture for next year might seem dire given all the water that needs to be recharged, especially because early season snow-water equivalent in the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan basins is 69% below average.<\/p>\n

But a dry year is far from certain.<\/p>\n

As Wolff points out, snow accumulates most in Southwest Colorado in February and March and snowpack peaks in early April.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe tend to get a lot of our snow a little later in the winter season,\u201d said Gigi Richard, a Fort Lewis College geosciences professor and director of the Four Corners Water Center. \u201cBy Dec. 1, not having much snowpack is not a huge concern.\u201d<\/p>\n

She is closely watching abnormally warm temperatures, limited precipitation so far this fall and La Ni\u00f1a for a better idea of what water resources will look like next year.<\/p>\n

According to the Colorado Climate Center, parts of La Plata, Archuleta, Mineral and Hinsdale counties have recorded their warmest November ever.<\/p>\n

Southwest Colorado as a whole has had a significantly warmer-than-average fall in tandem with less precipitation<\/a> than usual, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Colorado Climate Center data.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe biggest impact that warm temperatures and no snow or no precipitation has is that soils really dry out,\u201d Richard said.<\/p>\n

Dry soils limit snow accumulation and reduce the water storage that feeds rivers and reservoirs.<\/p>\n

Soils dried out during the past year will have to soak up early-season snows until they replenish their capacity.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou can think of our mountains as a big sponge, and we want that sponge to be wet and full of water,\u201d Richard said. \u201cIf we have long periods with no precipitation, really dry air and higher temperatures, that sponge starts to dry out. If we go into the snow season with a dry sponge, we\u2019ve got to fill that up again before we start to get runoff in the stream.\u201d<\/p>\n

Climate change is in part responsible for dry soils because as temperatures warm, soils dry out more quickly, she said.<\/p>\n

Climate change also shifts the hydrologic cycle, melting snow earlier, lengthening the growing season and boosting evaporation and transpiration.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe net result is we end up with less water in the rivers, which we\u2019ve seen for the last two years throughout the Upper Colorado River Basin,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

La Ni\u00f1a this year could also compound the effects of dry soils and climate change.<\/p>\n

During La Ni\u00f1a<\/a>, cold water in the Pacific Ocean shifts the jet stream northward.<\/p>\n

As the jet stream goes northward, so do the storms. The Pacific Northwest and Canada get heavy rains and flooding while the Southwest faces drought.<\/p>\n

\"Navajo
Navajo Reservoir\u2019s levels are at a two-year low, 67% below average, after another dry summer and fall in Southwest Colorado. Reservoirs are trying to replenish their supply, lowering many streams well below their average flows. (Courtesy of Colorado Climate Center)<\/span>cca<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

The pattern has already begun to show itself this year.<\/p>\n

Seattle recorded its wettest fall on record and western Washington and British Columbia have dealt with catastrophic floods<\/a> over the last few months.<\/p>\n

If the Pacific Northwest is a sign, La Ni\u00f1a could upend water resources in Southwest Colorado, but Richard said any early-season effects shouldn\u2019t be concerning.<\/p>\n

\u201cEven if storms end up tracking further north, we could still end up with a few good storms that give us a decent snowpack,\u201d she said. \u201cA La Ni\u00f1a year doesn\u2019t mean all hope is lost. It\u2019s just more likely that more storms will miss us.\u201d<\/p>\n

Richard noted that even a few big storms could bring enough snow to recharge water in the region.<\/p>\n

How all of this plays out over the next few months will determine whether Southwest Colorado faces significant water shortages again next year.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe rely on storing our snowpack and using that water throughout the year for irrigation, for agriculture and for municipal and domestic use,\u201d Richard said. \u201cThe city of Durango doesn\u2019t have a big storage reservoir. We\u2019re relying on the perennial flow in the Florida and Animas rivers for our water supply.\u201d<\/p>\n

Managers like Wolff are already thinking about next year\u2019s water and the potential effects of dry soils and La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnybody who deals with water knows the poor two years we\u2019ve seen and what would happen if we have another really bad year,\u201d Wolff said. \u201cHopefully, we get a good snowpack, but we need to be thinking about those things right now.\u201d<\/p>\n

ahannon@durangoherald.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Scientists and water managers hope for snow, but they have reason for concern<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":43344,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[785,402,28,1164,295,294,1163],"naviga_topic":[],"class_list":["post-43343","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-climate","tag-drought","tag-headlines","tag-snow","tag-water","tag-water-supply","tag-weather-science"],"acf":[],"author_name":"dh_admin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43343","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43343"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43343\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":85665,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43343\/revisions\/85665"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43344"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43343"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43343"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43343"},{"taxonomy":"naviga_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/naviga_topic?post=43343"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}