{"id":35583,"date":"2023-02-17T23:23:39","date_gmt":"2023-02-18T06:23:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/forecast-mcphee-reservoir-likely-to-fill-provide-spill-for-whitewater-boating\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T02:25:38","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T08:25:38","slug":"forecast-mcphee-reservoir-likely-to-fill-provide-spill-for-whitewater-boating","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/forecast-mcphee-reservoir-likely-to-fill-provide-spill-for-whitewater-boating\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast: McPhee Reservoir likely to fill, provide spill for whitewater boating"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Sailing
Sailing on above-average snowpack, David Wilson of Salt Lake City uses a paraglider to pull him on his snowboard on Lizard Head Pass. (Jim Mimiaga\/The Journal)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

Based on snowpack in the Dolores River Basin, there is a 90% probability that the runoff will fill McPhee Reservoir, according to the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center.<\/p>\n

Farmers for the Dolores Water Conservancy District could receive a full irrigation supply of 22 inches per acre, said general manger Ken Curtis, which has not happened since 2019.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re in very good shape for a full supply,\u201d he said. \u201cIf it continues to act like winter, that will firm up the forecast.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to the Feb. 15 forecast, there is a 70% probability that there will be enough runoff for a small whitewater spill below McPhee Dam for boating in the Lower Dolores River Canyon, according to CRBFC data<\/a>. The last boating release was in 2019.<\/p>\n

At the level of 90% probability, the reservoir would receive 228,000 acre-feet. A full active supply is 225,000 acre-feet, and the reservoir holds 33,000 acre-feet of active supply.<\/p>\n

At the 70% probability, as of Feb. 15, the runoff would equal 283,000 acre-feet, which would provide enough water to fill the reservoir and provide for a short boating season below the dam.<\/p>\n

\"A
A raft enters Snaggletooth Rapid on the Lower Dolores in June. The river came alive last summer after a dam release ended a four-year streak without a rafting season. (Jim Mimiaga\/The Journal)<\/span>Jim Mimiaga<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

Many variables could shift the forecast up or down.<\/p>\n

If winter proceeds at an average level, the forecast would continue to hold up, but abnormally high spring temperatures, consistent wind, and dust on snow could quickly wick away the snowpack.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe winter could dry out, there could be early spring warming. There is a wide range of possibilities right now,\u201d said Brenda Alcorn, CRBFC senior hydrologist.<\/p>\n

The water supply calculation is based on runoff from April through June.<\/p>\n

Snotels that measure snowpack in the Dolores River Basin were at 146% of the 30-year average on Feb. 15 for snow-water equivalent, according to data from the National Resources Conservation Service.<\/p>\n

Cortez saw precipitation way above average for December and January, said Jim Andrus, weather observer for the National Weather Service.<\/p>\n

January received 2.82 inches of precipitation, or 266% of the average 1.06 inches for the month.<\/p>\n

December received 1.69 inches of precipitation, or 190% of the average 0.80 inches for the month.<\/p>\n

January snowfall for Cortez was 26.8 inches, or 335% of the average 8 inches for the month.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou can thank the legendary 15-inch snowstorm that hit Jan. 17-18,\u201d Andrus said.<\/p>\n

December snowfall was also above average, with 10.2 inches falling, or 138% of the average 7.4 inches.<\/p>\n

Snowfall for the winter season, October to April, for Cortez is 44.7 inches, or 173% of average through Feb. 15, Andrus said.<\/p>\n

\u201cNow we have spring. Will it eat away at snowpack up high instead of sending it downstream?\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

jmimiaga@the-journal.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Above-average snowpack puts farmers and boaters into promising 2023 season<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":35584,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[341,28,280,29],"naviga_topic":[],"class_list":["post-35583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-dolores-river","tag-headlines","tag-mcphee-reservoir","tag-newsletter"],"acf":[],"author_name":"dh_admin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35583","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35583"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35583\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":83028,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35583\/revisions\/83028"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35584"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35583"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35583"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35583"},{"taxonomy":"naviga_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/naviga_topic?post=35583"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}