{"id":34732,"date":"2023-04-07T05:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-07T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/what-to-expect-from-an-above-average-spring-runoff\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T08:20:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T08:20:21","slug":"what-to-expect-from-an-above-average-spring-runoff","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/what-to-expect-from-an-above-average-spring-runoff\/","title":{"rendered":"What to expect from an above-average spring runoff"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\"The
The snowpack in the San Juan Mountains on April 1 is well above-average for this time of year. A sudden spike in temperatures, which isn\u2019t in the area\u2019s immediate forecast, could cause flooding in lower elevations. (Jerry McBride\/Durango Herald)<\/span>cca<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

A strong snowpack this winter coupled with a wet summer in 2022 bodes well for water conservationists, the agricultural industry and reservoir operators. But La Plata County officials are keeping a wary eye on weather forecasts in case temperatures spike too quickly, causing rapid snowmelt and increased risk of flooding.<\/p>\n

The Colorado River Basin Forecast Center stationed in Salt Lake City forecasts 153% of average runoff for the Animas River Basin through July, said Paul Miller, service coordination hydrologist and spokesman.<\/p>\n

That level of runoff hasn\u2019t been seen in the basin since 2019, which has the most comparable conditions of recent years to this spring. But one key difference is the snow started melting earlier in 2019 than it has this year, he said. Rapid snowmelt began in early April 2019, but that isn\u2019t expected to happen this year for at least another 10 to 14 days, or longer.<\/p>\n

Steve Wolff, general manager at Southwest Water Conservancy District, said he hasn\u2019t seen any runoff into rivers yet despite above-average winter snowpack. Last year didn\u2019t have nearly as much snowpack, but what was present melted quickly as a result of warm, windy weather.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis year, across the Colorado River Basin, I think people are expecting some significant runoff,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd it\u2019ll just depend on how fast it warms up.\u201d<\/p>\n

He said Bureau of Reclamation forecasts show most area reservoirs are expected to \u201cfill and spill,\u201d meaning they will fill up and release excess water. Some reservoirs, such as Vallecito, are already performing early releases to make room for the spring runoff.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve been in a long, dry period and we haven\u2019t seen reservoirs filled in a while,\u201d Wolff said. \u201cSo I think that\u2019s great. Based on some of the rains we had last year, our soil moisture is in pretty good shape.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"The
The Animas River flows into Durango on Thursday. An above-average snowpack in the mountains could push the river out of its banks if the area experiences a sudden rise temperature. So far, spring is off to a slow start with cool temperatures, which is good news for La Plata County officials who are ever watchful of flood conditions. (Jerry McBride\/Durango Herald)<\/span>cca<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

According to the National Weather Service, soil moisture is an important component for runoff. If the soil is dry, it will absorb water, which results in less runoff reaching streams, rivers and reservoirs. But when soil moisture is high and the soil can\u2019t retain more water, the water will continue to flow downhill.<\/p>\n

\u201cRight now it\u2019s looking like a good year,\u201d Wolff said. \u201cThe one thing we don\u2019t want to see is a lot of damage from flooding.\u201d<\/p>\n

Miller said current streamflow forecasts for reservoirs near the San Juan Mountains are 150% of average through July. Lemon Reservoir almost 18 miles northeast of Durango is forecast to receive 160%, or 77,000 acre feet, of what it does on average. Vallecito Reservoir, 24 miles northwest of Durango, is forecast to receive 144% of its average supply, or 255,000 acre feet.<\/p>\n

McPhee Reservoir, 62 miles northwest of Durango, is forecast to receive an impressive 202% of its average supply, 515,000 acre feet, more than what was achieved in 2019, he said.<\/p>\n

Historically, if predictions come true, this would be the second wettest runoff season on record for McPhee Reservoir, he said. And the water supply would only be about 4,000 acre feet behind the record set in 1993.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe could definitely see the wettest on record,\u201d Miller said. \u201cIt\u2019s definitely within the realm of possibilities.\u201d<\/p>\n

Emergency preparedness<\/div>\n

\"Sgt.
Sgt. Chris Burke, with the La Plata County Sheriff\u2019s Office, opens the department\u2019s Terradyne MPV tactical vehicle that, thanks to its ground clearance and weight, can be used to rescue people during floods and debris flows. The Sherrif\u2019s Office had previously used an older tactical vehicle to rescue people during flooding after the 416 Fire. (Jerry McBride\/Durango Herald)<\/span>cca<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

Clogged culverts, rockslides and flooded roads are just a few of the possibilities that can result with a rapid spring runoff. But when to expect what can be a complex question to answer.<\/p>\n

Shawna Legarza, director of La Plata County emergency management, said she tunes into National Weather Service forecasts about every two weeks to keep up with evolving weather conditions.<\/p>\n

The National Weather Service predicts a slow warmup leading into the summer, which is good news because it reduces the threat of a rapid runoff, Legarza said.<\/p>\n

La Plata County\u2019s Office of Emergency Management has been monitoring areas that are prone to flooding, she said.<\/p>\n

After rains in March, the county opened its Emergency Operations Center and met with area fire chiefs to strategize where to store sandbags for use by residents in case of flooding.<\/p>\n

\"The
The Colorado River Basin Forecast Center stationed in Salt Lake City forecasts 153% of average runoff for the Animas River Basin through July. (Jerry McBride\/Durango Herald)<\/span>cca<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

Increased moisture is good for vegetation and helping grasses grow, Legarza said, but eventually those grasses will dry out, which can help fuel wildfires.<\/p>\n

La Plata County Sheriff Sean Smith said 2023 will be an interesting year because of significant winter snowpack after years of drought.<\/p>\n

Most of the flooding events he has dealt with as sheriff stemmed from the 416 Fire of 2018. He said flash-flooding can be a \u201cterrifying\u201d experience.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe burned for 37 days during the fire and didn\u2019t lose a structure,\u201d he said. \u201cOn the first day of flooding, we lost three (structures from) mudslides and debris flows,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

cburney@durangoherald.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

An earlier version of this story misattributed a quote. Paul Miller of the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center said: \u201cWe could definitely see the wettest on record. It\u2019s definitely within the realm of possibilities.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

reservoirs are likely to fill; meanwhile, rapid snowmelt could result in flooding<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34733,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[364,950,971,28,475,1613,1625,295,294],"naviga_topic":[],"class_list":["post-34732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-community","tag-durango","tag-emergency-planning","tag-headlines","tag-la-plata-county-colorado","tag-natural-disasters","tag-nature","tag-water","tag-water-supply"],"acf":[],"author_name":"dh_admin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34732"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34732\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":82718,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34732\/revisions\/82718"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34733"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34732"},{"taxonomy":"naviga_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/naviga_topic?post=34732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}