{"id":21936,"date":"2025-06-07T17:22:28","date_gmt":"2025-06-07T23:22:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/farmers-watch-trade-war-like-the-weather\/"},"modified":"2025-06-07T23:22:28","modified_gmt":"2025-06-07T23:22:28","slug":"farmers-watch-trade-war-like-the-weather","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/farmers-watch-trade-war-like-the-weather\/","title":{"rendered":"Farmers watch trade war like the weather"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Minnesota
Minnesota Farm Bureau president Dan Glessing loads soybeans into his planter on May 8 near Waverly, Minnesota. (Mark Vancleave\/The Associated Press)<\/span>Mark Vancleave<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

WAVERLY, Minn. \u2013 Minnesota farmer Dan Glessing isn\u2019t ready to get too upset over President Donald Trump\u2019s trade wars.<\/p>\n

Farm country voted heavily for Trump last November. Now Glessing and many other farmers are taking a wait-and-see attitude toward the Republican president\u2019s disputes with China and other international markets.<\/p>\n

China normally would buy about one row out of every four of the Minnesota soybean crop and took in nearly $13 billion worth of soybeans from the U.S. as a whole last year. More than half of U.S. soybeans are exported internationally, with roughly half of those going to China, so it\u2019s a critical market.<\/p>\n

Trump last month raised U.S. tariffs on products from China to 145%, and China retaliated with 125%. But Monday\u2019s announcement of a 90-day truce between the two countries backed up the reluctance of many farmers to hit the panic button.<\/p>\n

More good news came in an updated forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday that projected higher corn exports and only slightly lower corn prices. The report also predicted somewhat lower soybean exports but higher domestic consumption, resulting in higher prices. Soybean futures surged.<\/p>\n

After he finished planting his soybean crop on Monday, Glessing said he was excited by the news and hopes to see more progress. But he said he wasn\u2019t really surprised.<\/p>\n

Tariffs, weather and other uncertainty<\/div>\n

On a bright, sunny day last week, as he began planting soybeans, Glessing said tariffs were only one of the things he\u2019s worried about \u2013 and not necessarily the biggest. Farming, after all, is an enterprise built on loose soil, the whims of weather and other uncontrollable factors.<\/p>\n

\u201cAm I concerned about tariffs? Yeah. I mean, there\u2019s uncertainty that comes with that,\u201d Glessing said. \u201cIs that the number one driving factor in these poor commodity prices the last two years? No.\u201d<\/p>\n

As he steered his 25-year-old Case IH tractor over a gently rolling field near the town of Waverly, he towed a planter that inserted his seeds through the stubble of last year\u2019s corn crop. As he laid down the long rows, he rumbled past a pond where wild swans paddled about.<\/p>\n

Riding shotgun was Georgie the Corgi, who alternated between roaming around his cab and half-dozing at his feet.<\/p>\n

Perhaps more skeptical than Glessing is Matt Griggs, one of many soybean farmers in Tennessee paying close attention to the trade war. On Monday, he said the ripple effects on farmers might still be coming.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re only on a 90-day pause,\u201d Griggs said. \u201cWho knows what is going to come after that?\u201d<\/p>\n

Joe Janzen, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois, said the commodity markets have largely shaken off the initial shock of the trade war, including Trumps\u2019 declaration of April 2 as \u201cLiberation Day,\u201d when he announced stiff worldwide tariffs.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur markets have largely rebounded and are back where we were around April Second,\u201d Janzen said. \u201cTariffs have not had a major impact on prices yet.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even something that might seem like good news \u2013 ideal planting conditions across much of the Midwest \u2013 has its downside. The potential for bigger crops sent prices downward, Glessing noted. High interest rates, seed and fertilizer costs pose additional challenges.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s so many other factors besides just tariffs and my market price,\u201d Glessing said.<\/p>\n

Looking for signs of progress<\/div>\n

But Glessing said he was encouraged by that morning\u2019s news of a trade deal with the United Kingdom and said he hopes the current uncertainty in talks with China and other countries ultimately leads to better trade deals going forward.<\/p>\n

Glessing had finished planting his corn the day before on the other half of a field that he rents from his father\u2019s cousin, split between 45 acres of corn and 45 acres of beans. It\u2019s at the farm where his grandfather grew up, and it\u2019s part of the approximately 700 acres he plants on average. He locked in those planting decisions months earlier as he made deals for seeds, fertilizer and other supplies.<\/p>\n

Back on his \u201chome farm\u201d closer to Waverly \u2013 where his late grandfather\u2019s house, made of local brick, still stands and a cacophony of house sparrow songs filled the air \u2013 Glessing was pleased to spot the first signs of corn he had planted there about 10 days earlier poking above the soil.<\/p>\n

Waverly is about an hour west of Minneapolis. Its most famous resident was Democratic former Vice President Hubert Humphrey. It\u2019s in the congressional district represented by Republican House Majority Whip Tom Emmer.<\/p>\n

Glessing\u2019s post as president of the Minnesota Farm Bureau puts him in close touch with other influential politicians, too. He and his wife, Seena, were Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar\u2019s guests at the Capitol for Trump\u2019s inauguration in January. Glessing declined to say who he voted for.<\/p>\n

The Glessings have four kids, milk about 75 dairy cows, and grow corn, soybeans and alfalfa on a combination of parcels they own or rent. He uses the alfalfa and corn primarily to feed his cows. He sells his soybeans to a processing plant in Mankato, where some of them become soybean meal he adds to his animal feed. The milk from his cows goes to a co-op cheese plant in Litchfield that sells internationally.<\/p>\n

Because Glessing has local buyers locked in and doesn\u2019t directly export his crops, he\u2019s partially cushioned from the volatility of world markets. But he\u2019s quick to point out that everything in the agricultural economy is interconnected.<\/p>\n

Lessons learned during Trump\u2019s first trade war<\/div>\n

On his farm near Humboldt, Tennessee, roughly midway between Memphis and Nashville, Griggs weathered the 2018 trade war during Trump\u2019s first term and said he feels more prepared this time around.<\/p>\n

\u201cBack in 2018, prices were about the same as what they are now, and due to the trade war with China, prices dropped around 15%,\u201d he said. \u201cThey dropped significantly lower, and they dropped in a hurry, and due to that, we lost a lot of demand from China.\u201d<\/p>\n

Griggs said exports to China never fully rebounded. But he doesn\u2019t think the impact of the current dispute will be nearly as drastic.<\/p>\n

Griggs \u2013 who raises approximately 1,600 acres of cotton, corn, soybeans and wheat \u2013 said tariffs were just one consideration as he planned out this year\u2019s crops. Growing a variety of crops helps him minimize the risk that comes with weather, volatile prices, and now the prospect of a trade war.<\/p>\n

Griggs said he\u2019s going to be watching for opportunities to sell when market volatility causes upticks in prices.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe main thing I learned in 2018 was that if you do have a price period where prices have risen some, go ahead and take advantage of it instead of waiting for it to go higher,\u201d said Griggs. \u201cBecause when it comes to the tariffs and everything, the markets can be very unpredictable. So my lesson learned was, \u2018Don\u2019t hold out for a home run, be satisfied with a double.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

He said a temporary subsidy called the Market Facilitation Program helped soybean farmers withstand some of the losses last time could help if something similar is revived this year. But he said no farmer wants to make a living off government subsidies.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe just want fair access to markets,\u201d Griggs said. \u201cAnd a fair price for the products we produce.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

They\u2019re waiting to see how things go<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21937,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[28,29],"naviga_topic":[],"class_list":["post-21936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-headlines","tag-newsletter"],"acf":[],"author_name":"dh_admin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21936"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21936\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21937"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21936"},{"taxonomy":"naviga_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/naviga_topic?post=21936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}