{"id":16192,"date":"2025-10-10T00:21:05","date_gmt":"2025-10-10T00:21:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/steady-rain-is-on-its-way-heres-what-to-expect\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T03:55:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T03:55:07","slug":"steady-rain-is-on-its-way-heres-what-to-expect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/steady-rain-is-on-its-way-heres-what-to-expect\/","title":{"rendered":"Steady rain is on its way. Here\u2019s what to expect"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Durango
Durango Herald file<br><br>Rain is expected to move into Southwest Colorado Thursday night and linger into Friday. Snow is likely above 10,000 feet in the San Juan Mountains.<\/span>du1-i-syn<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

Editor\u2019s note: The Journal will be covering the storm this weekend in mountainous regions, Dolores and Cortez. If you have photos to share please send them to news@the-journal.com<\/a>, or share them with our <\/em>Facebook<\/em><\/a> and please include in the share the time and place. <\/em><\/p>\n

Rain is projected to persist across Southwest Colorado through Friday and Saturday, bringing some risk of local flooding in low-lying areas, areas with burn scars or mountain highway passes.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not an extreme or catastrophic event, according to National Weather Service forecasters, but residents or drivers should stay weather alert \u2013 especially if heading to the mountains, driving at night or finding themselves in flood-prone areas.<\/p>\n

National Weather Service meteorologist Gillian Felton described the storm as \u201ca good amount of rain over a longer time period,\u201d saying it\u2019s not expected to be extreme but may bring flooding, and therefore vulnerability, to tricky places.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt looks consistent. It\u2019s going to be a good amount of rainfall over the next two or three days, so staying weather-aware is very important,\u201d Felton said.<\/p>\n

As of Thursday evening, the weekend weather forecast remains in line with what NWS issued in the Flood Watch, which begins Thursday and is lasting through Saturday afternoon.<\/p>\n

\"Forecasters
Forecasters at the National Weather Service say valleys may see up to 2 inches, with 2 to 3 inches possible in the high country. (Courtesy of NOAA)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"Experts
Experts raise potential for flooding across the San Juan National Forest, especially in surrounding waterways, canyons and foothills. (Courtesy of NOAA)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

The most-persistent rain occurs Friday and Saturday, at 90% and 100% probabilities, with chances of precipitation dropping quickly late Saturday into Sunday, when a cold front moves through. Forecast totals are roughly three-quarters of an inch to 2 inches of rain in valley locations like Cortez, with 2 to 3 inches possible in the high country, according to Felton.<\/p>\n

The storm\u2019s main driver is moisture drawn from Hurricane Priscilla off Mexico\u2019s Pacific coast, funneled north between a high-pressure system over Texas and a low-pressure system near the Pacific Northwest. This outcome is a warm, moisture-rich and tropical air mass that\u2019s more common in midsummer than early October.<\/p>\n

\"The
The NOAA satellite image taken Tuesday shows Hurricane Priscilla in the East Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mexico. Forecasters have said this weekend rain isn\u2019t expected to be extreme but could still trigger localized flooding and debris on mountain roads. (NOAA via AP File Photo)<\/span>dur-i-syn<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>
Mountainous areas pose extra risk<\/div>\n

NWS forecasters say the approaching storm could deliver rain above what this region sees on a monthly average in fall \u2013 all in just about two days.<\/p>\n

Experts say it raises potential for flash flooding across the higher-terrain San Juan National Forest and surrounding waterways, canyons and foothills.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe mountains could get more, because the air lifts and cools as it crosses the peaks, dumping extra rain there,\u201d said Jim Andrus, the longtime National Weather Service spotter based in Cortez.<\/p>\n

Therefore, steep terrain along Colorado Highway 145 \u2013 specifically between Dolores and Rico \u2013 or along U.S. Highway 160 could see runoff or rocks sliding, Andrus said.<\/p>\n

This is because rain may loosen soil and rock sitting on steeper slopes, which also has potential to block and slow traffic in high-country passes. Drivers on Lizard Head Pass and other mountain passes may encounter loose debris and boulders on roadways.<\/p>\n

Montezuma County Sheriff Steve Nowlin said several areas across the county could see flooding, particularly in the high country along Colorado 145\u2019s main corridor.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe town of Dolores is also a concern \u2013 water comes in from three different directions there, and we\u2019ve seen flooding before, including about a month and a half ago when a storm caused standing water and mudslides on 145,\u201d Nowlin said.<\/p>\n

While low-lying roads and San Juan access routes could temporarily flood if heavy rain develops, Nowlin said, the Dolores River is not expected to rise.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve been in a drought all summer,\u201d he said. \u201cIf any flooding occurs, it will likely be short-lived.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Dolores River is running well below normal for this time of year \u2013 meaning streamflow is relatively low and stable. Measured at the U.S. Geological Survey gauge in the town of Dolores, the river is running low at about 55.8 cubic feet per second<\/a>, roughly half what\u2019s typical for early October. Its height is 2.24 feet, well below the 8-foot flood stage, meaning the river would need to rise more than 5\u00bd feet to reach a flood-level stage.<\/p>\n

\"A
A fisherman is on the Dolores River in 2021 below the McPhee Dam. The Dolores River remains low for now, but forecasters expect water levels to rise this weekend as widespread rain moves to Southwest Colorado. (Jim Mimiaga\/Journal fie photo)<\/span>du1-i-syn<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

In fact, Andrus said, rainfall across the upper river watershed could raise river levels and improve water storage with the area\u2019s reservoir.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf storms hit right over the watershed, you could expect river levels to rise,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Despite the hazards, Andrus said the moisture will be welcome after a dry summer and dry start to fall.<\/p>\n

Thunderstorms are a possibility<\/div>\n

Although the weekend\u2019s rain will fall mostly as steady, tropical-style showers, NWS\u2019s Felton said thunderstorms may develop inside the broader, storm-system pockets.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis will be more widespread rainfall with embedded stronger thunderstorms,\u201d she said, adding that lightning was already observed in the region Thursday morning.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s certainly a possibility \u2026 not like those days when we have primarily strong thunderstorms but still enough to bring localized, heavier rainfall rates and lightning,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Felton also cautioned that areas with burn scars are especially vulnerable to flooding.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith the burn scars, the soil changes so it becomes more hydrophobic,\u201d she said. \u201cThat means it repels water instead of absorbing it, so there is an increased risk of flooding around burn scars when we\u2019re getting rain \u2013 especially heavier rainfall.\u201d<\/p>\n

Local flooding possible in Cortez, Towaoc<\/div>\n

The city of Cortez is built on a hill, with its highest point around Main and Market streets downtown. Therefore, because of the elevation gradient, Andrus said, some lower intersections and drainage dips in the city can collect standing water during hard rains \u2013 especially if stormwater infrastructure can\u2019t keep up.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a low spot on Fifth Street, just east of Arby\u2019s between South Broadway and South Third Street,\u201d he said. \u201cThat ditch can carry a lot of water from city streets, and sometimes you\u2019ll see water standing there after heavy storms.\u201d<\/p>\n

He said the lowest stretch of U.S. 491 and U.S. 160 south of Towaoc also floods periodically as runoff gathers from surrounding desert terrain.<\/p>\n

Montezuma County public information officer Vicki Shaffer said people living in flood-prone areas \u2013 including along Road G and in neighborhoods downhill from recent burn scars near Stoner Mesa \u2013 should remain especially cautious.<\/p>\n

Caution urged on mountain highways<\/div>\n

Drivers should use caution this weekend, especially at night, when standing water or debris may be hard to see.<\/p>\n

\u201cAfter dark, that would be the riskiest time for driving because you can\u2019t see the roads very well beyond your headlights,\u201d Andrus said.<\/p>\n

The sheriff urged drivers to slow down in wet conditions, watch out for standing water and fallen rocks and use caution on mountain highways where debris can block lanes.<\/p>\n

\u201cExcessive speed and bad passes have already caused serious and fatal crashes this year on 145,\u201d Nowlin said.<\/p>\n

Nowlin added that any asphalt road, where water is standing, could lead to hydroplaning.<\/p>\n

Nowlin also cautioned residents to take precautions during lightning. \u201cIf lightning develops, stay away from trees and metal,\u201d he said. \u201cFind a low, open area \u2013 and for hunters, that means putting down your firearm, because metal attracts lightning.\u201d<\/p>\n

How to prepare before and during the rain<\/div>\n
Stay weather-aware:<\/strong> National Weather Service meteorologist Jillian Felton advised residents to monitor updated forecasts at weather.gov\/gjt and to stay alert for changing conditions or new flood alerts through Saturday.<\/div>\n
Watch low spots and flood-prone roads: <\/strong>Jim Andrus, local weather spotter, said Cortez\u2019s storm drains can back up in low-lying intersections, such as Fifth Street near South Broadway. Drivers should avoid standing water.<\/div>\n
Look out debris, falling rock and mudslides in the mountains: <\/strong>Drivers on Colorado Highway 145, U.S. Highway 160, and other mountain passes, such as Lizard Head Pass, could encounter rocks, boulders or mud on roadways after heavy rainfall. Areas like Dunlap Hill, on County Road 31 North of Dolores, and along the 145 corridor are susceptible to sliding and falling rocks.<\/div>\n
For outdoor recreation<\/div>\n
Avoid lightning exposure:<\/strong> Nowlin urged hunters, hikers and campers to stay out of open areas and away from trees or metal objects during storms. Wait 30 minutes after thunder before resuming outdoor activity.Dress and pack for changing conditions: <\/strong>Heavy rain could last for hours, and snow is possible at higher elevations.<\/div>\n
Reporting hazards, getting alerts<\/div>\n

Shaffer, the county\u2019s emergency manager, said it\u2019s important to be aware of conditions and be prepared to respond if flooding develops.<\/p>\n

Report flooded or blocked roads to the Montezuma County Sheriff\u2019s dispatch at (970) 565-8454. <\/div>\n
Sign up for Everbridge emergency alerts by getting the information through the county\u2019s website<\/a> to receive road closure and safety updates in real time.<\/div>\n

NWS meteorologist Jillian Felton said residents can get the latest forecast updates by visiting https:\/\/www.weather.gov<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Correction: A note was made Friday morning to amend Vicki Shaffer\u2019s title, she is the public spokesperson for Montezuma County. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Forecasters say it\u2019s not a catastrophic event, but flooding, debris and slick roads are possible through Saturday<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16193,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[28,29,1623,414],"naviga_topic":[],"class_list":["post-16192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-headlines","tag-newsletter","tag-rain","tag-weather"],"acf":[],"author_name":"dh_admin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16192"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16192\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":77179,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16192\/revisions\/77179"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16193"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16192"},{"taxonomy":"naviga_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/naviga_topic?post=16192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}