{"id":16026,"date":"2025-10-21T18:51:28","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T18:51:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/november-likely-will-be-warmer-drier-for-four-corners-but-expect-swings\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T03:53:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T03:53:27","slug":"november-likely-will-be-warmer-drier-for-four-corners-but-expect-swings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/november-likely-will-be-warmer-drier-for-four-corners-but-expect-swings\/","title":{"rendered":"November likely will be warmer, drier for Four Corners, but expect swings"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Fall
Fall colors brighten at San Miguel River South Fork Preserve in early October. (Aaron Lewis\/Special to The Journal)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

After soaking rain and a stretch of chilly mornings in October, Southwest Colorado will shift toward warmer and drier weather in November.<\/p>\n

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center<\/a> outlooks, discussed by National Weather Service meteorologist Scott Handel, reflect the influence of La Ni\u00f1a conditions \u2013 a weak tropical cycle that typically brings warmer, drier winters to the Southwest.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor November, we\u2019re tilting the odds toward above-normal temperatures for southwestern Colorado,\u201d Handel said, adding that the region carries \u201cabout a 40-to-50% chance\u201d of being warmer than normal.<\/p>\n

Precipitation predictions, Handel said, are only \u201cslightly above a 33% chance of below-normal precipitation,\u201d signaling drier conditions in NOAA predictive models with limited confidence.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese are probabilities,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s important for people to know that this is a representation of what we think is the most likely category for the mean temperature for the month as a whole.\u201d<\/p>\n

Handel added: \u201cYou could still have cold snaps during the month.\u201d<\/p>\n

Main statistics guiding the monthly forecast include La Ni\u00f1a conditions, the Madden-Julian Oscillation \u2013 known as the shifting clusters of tropical thunderstorms that affect where high and low pressure systems form \u2013 as well as 15-year trends. The Climate Prediction Center also runs computer simulations modeling how the atmosphere might behave under projected conditions.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t have the skill that far out to predict a particular day,\u201d Handel said, noting that updated outlooks will be released Oct. 31.<\/p>\n

Decades of data show Cortez trending drier<\/div>\n

Local weather spotter Jim Andrus said residents should distinguish between variations, episodes and trends. He said the Cortez climate is unique, sitting between a wet temperate zone to the north and the dry subtropical high to the south \u2013 a setup that can either block or gather storms.<\/p>\n

Drawing on decades of weather recorded for NWS, Andrus said average annual precipitation has declined over successive 30-year periods. Those numbers include 13.21 inches (1971-2000), 12.57 inches (1981-2010) and 10.69 inches (1991-2020).<\/p>\n

Andrus makes a distinction: The weather changes seasonally and annually. In contrast, the climate has long-term shifts, which can be tracked through decadeslong data or trends.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are getting drier,\u201d he said, adding how thinner snowpacks leave less irrigation water and shorter ski seasons. \u201cPeople think, \u2018Well, I just got a snowstorm \u2013 global warming is not happening.\u2019 That\u2019s a variation, an individual variation.\u201d<\/p>\n

Andrus noted roughly 1\u00bd inches of rain in Cortez this month from remnants of Pacific tropical moisture was a short \u201cepisode\u201d that offered brief relief but \u201cdoesn\u2019t change the larger picture.\u201d<\/p>\n

Handel said even in a dry-leaning month, \u201cone or two storms that coincide with a cold air outbreak can still produce decent snowfall,\u201d especially in the transition zone that covers southwest Colorado.<\/p>\n

He said during La Ni\u00f1a winters, the northwestern region of Colorado often sees more snow, while the state\u2019s southeastern parts get less, with Southwest Colorado sitting in between \u2013 a transition zone where snowfall can swing either way.<\/p>\n

Handel emphasized local variation and being mindful of microclimates, with the mountains and valleys being so different within a small region.<\/p>\n

\u201cYour local weather forecast office based in Grand Junction is really the expert as far as tailoring these national forecasts into local effects for your region specifically,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ni\u00f1a pattern favors warm, dry start to Colorado\u2019s cold season <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16027,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[28,29],"naviga_topic":[],"class_list":["post-16026","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-headlines","tag-newsletter"],"acf":[],"author_name":"dh_admin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16026","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16026"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16026\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19974,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16026\/revisions\/19974"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16027"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16026"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16026"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16026"},{"taxonomy":"naviga_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/naviga_topic?post=16026"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}