{"id":15114,"date":"2025-12-20T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-20T19:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/what-does-recent-dry-spell-mean-for-snowpack-and-winter-forecast\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T21:45:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T03:45:30","slug":"what-does-recent-dry-spell-mean-for-snowpack-and-winter-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/what-does-recent-dry-spell-mean-for-snowpack-and-winter-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"What does recent dry spell mean for snowpack and winter forecast?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\"Snow
Snow is expected to return to the San Juan Mountains on Christmas Eve. Southwest Colorado has experienced warm and dry conditions heading into winter. That is not unusual; forecasters say there is still time for the snowpack to catch up to healthy levels. (Jerry McBride\/Durango Herald)<\/span>cca<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

Warm and dry conditions have dominated much of the West, including Southwest Colorado, heading into winter.<\/p>\n

But precipitation is expected to return with a storm arriving on Christmas Eve. Just how much moisture will be carried into the region remains uncertain, said Braeden Winters, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.<\/p>\n

Regardless, snow is in the forecast.<\/p>\n

The San Juan Mountains have the best chance for widespread snowfall, while warm lower elevations could see rain instead.<\/p>\n

\u201cChristmas Eve and Christmas is shaping up to be our next best chance of a widespread snow event,\u201d Winters said. \u201cI\u2019m not really sure how far down onto the slopes it\u2019ll get \u2012 including if it\u2019ll get down to Durango \u2012 but the San Juans in general will have a better shot at getting snow during the midweek period than we\u2019ve been seeing recently.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fort Lewis College meteorology professor Jon Harvey agreed, saying the warm air associated with the storm means snow levels will mostly stay high.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis storm might be one of those relatively warm ones that people sometimes call Pineapple Express, with relatively warm, humid air,\u201d he said. \u201cPurgatory will get maybe a little bit denser snow, whereas the high passes can still get some fluffy powder.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mild temperatures and sparse snowfall in November and December aren\u2019t unusual, Harvey said. This is a La Ni\u00f1a year, after all, which pushes the jet stream farther north, and with it moisture from the Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n

\"The
The San Juan Mountains south of Silverton have a fair amount on snow Friday, but they could use a lot more. (Jerry McBride\/Durango Herald)<\/span>cca<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

\u201cLa Ni\u00f1a winters have a statistical push toward wetter winters in the Pacific Northwest and drier winters in the desert Southwest,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s been persistent and it seems really extreme because it is. We\u2019re way above normal temperatures. However, if you really get in and look at the snowpack data from other years and some of the temperature records from past years, to have this pattern in December is really not that uncommon.\u201d<\/p>\n

Harvey cited National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data<\/a> tracking days above 50 degrees at Durango-La Plata County Airport since 1996. Over that 29-year period, six years had warmer November through December stretches, he said.<\/p>\n

\"A
A graph of historical snowpack data from the San Juan Mountains. Both 2019 and 2017 had a slow start before catching up to healthy snowpack levels. (Courtesy of Natural Resource Conservation Service)<\/span>cca<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

He said past winters with slow starts, such as 2017 and 2019, ended up rebounding with above-average snowpack in the San Juan Mountains, according to Natural Resource Conservation Service data<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are some years not that far back in history which became a really good snow year and started off really poorly,\u201d Harvey said. \u201cWe had a really long dry spell in November and December and we were kind of stuck under the jet stream like we are right now. So I actually have a lot of hope still for this year.\u201d<\/p>\n

Snow remains in the forecast, at least for the mountains. Winters urged holiday travelers crossing mountain passes to be ready for winter conditions.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s always best to stay up to date with the forecast,\u201d Winters said. \u201cHave some backup plans in case delays might happen, whether you\u2019re traveling by road or flying.\u201d<\/p>\n

sedmondson@durangoherald.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u2018I actually have a lot of hope still for this year,\u2019 forecaster says<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14111,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[785,28,994,414,88],"naviga_topic":[],"class_list":["post-15114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-climate","tag-headlines","tag-trueanthem","tag-weather","tag-weather-news"],"acf":[],"author_name":"dh_admin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15114","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15114"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15114\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19486,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15114\/revisions\/19486"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14111"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15114"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15114"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15114"},{"taxonomy":"naviga_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/naviga_topic?post=15114"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}