{"id":137270,"date":"2026-07-01T14:35:08","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T20:35:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/will-betting-on-wildfires-lead-to-arson\/"},"modified":"2026-07-01T14:35:08","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T20:35:08","slug":"will-betting-on-wildfires-lead-to-arson","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/will-betting-on-wildfires-lead-to-arson\/","title":{"rendered":"Will betting on wildfires lead to arson?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Firefighters
Firefighters try to protect a structure as the Eaton Fire advances, Jan. 8, 2025 in Altadena, California. Ethan Swope\/AP File Photo<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n

Editor\u2019s note: The California-specific wildfire betting market, Wyldfyre, took its website offline following the publication of this story.<\/em><\/p>\n

Sylvie Andrews and her partner didn\u2019t just lose the new house they\u2019d helped build when the Eaton Fire ripped through Altadena, California, in January 2025. They lost an entire decade\u2019s worth of sacrifices they\u2019d made to put down roots in their hometown, and the community they\u2019d created. \u201cWe put a lot of blood, sweat and tears into it,\u201d Andrews said. \u201cThat\u2019s what we lost in the fire.\u201d<\/p>\n

That fire, along with the Palisades Fire to the west, destroyed over 16,000 structures and killed 31 people. But while Andrews and thousands of Angelinos were racing to evacuate, other people saw a financial opportunity. Using Polymarket, the world\u2019s largest prediction market platform, they made bets on the fires \u2013 how they would grow, how long they would last and how much they would destroy.<\/p>\n

Prediction markets are essentially gambling websites where people bet on the outcome of events, including elections, sports, the weather and more. Anything is fair game, from oil prices and the spread of infectious diseases to international incidents. Markets usually frame questions in a \u201cyes\u201d or \u201cno\u201d fashion, with the price of a \u201ccontract\u201d fluctuating between $0 and $1. A price of 50 cents on a \u201cyes\u201d contract means that the people doing the betting collectively believe the event has a 50% chance of happening. Market hosts make money by charging a fee on wagers.<\/p>\n

In January 2025, Polymarket listed almost 20 questions, created by the platform\u2019s \u201cmarkets team,\u201d related to the wildfires burning up Southern California. How many acres will the Palisades Fire burn by Friday, three days after it ignited on a Tuesday? Will the Palisades Fire reach Santa Monica by Sunday? When will the Palisades fire be 50% contained? Will the Palisades and Eaton fires be contained before February?<\/p>\n

People spent $1.2 million betting on these queries, according to Aeon Magazine. \u201cWow,\u201d Andrews said repeatedly when she learned the figure. \u201cMy first take is that it\u2019s morally reprehensible,\u201d she said. \u201cThe fact that someone would feel OK doing that flabbergasts me.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe prediction markets are just the wild, wild West,\u201d said Susan Sherman, who grew up in the Pacific Palisades. She lost her childhood home in the Palisades Fire; her late parents had owned it since 1963, and now, it was gone. She sold the empty lot a few months ago. \u201cI look at (betting on the fires) as just being very crass and heartless.\u201d<\/p>\n

As prediction markets boom and a new wildfire season begins, fire survivors and ethicists say that the betting encourages and rewards callous thinking \u2013 and dangerous behavior, too.<\/p>\n

ONE MAJOR CONCERN<\/strong> stemming from wildfire prediction markets is arson. \u201cThat\u2019s what has me nervous,\u201d Sherman said. Theoretically, making a bet could give someone the perverse incentive to start a fire, or help one grow. Unlike other disasters, such as hurricanes, flooding or extreme heat, a fire can be manipulated in minutes by just one person. \u201cSystems that tie financial gain to wildfire outcomes risk encouraging misuse, including arson, and are not compatible with our mission,\u201d a spokesperson for the U.S. Forest Service said.<\/p>\n

\u201cImagine what a bad actor might do,\u201d said Ann Skeet, the senior director of leadership ethics at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University. \u201cA market that might support that kind of activity, I think, is a dangerous market.\u201d Firefighters or land managers with exclusive information about a fire\u2019s behavior or an agency\u2019s firefighting plans could even be tempted to bet on a fire, which would be considered insider trading.<\/p>\n

But the biggest dilemma is largely an ethical one. \u201cWhen you start gambling on somebody\u2019s potential death or harm, you\u2019re really diminishing the value that you\u2019re placing on human life,\u201d Skeet said.<\/p>\n

This story was originally published by High Country News and is republished here with permission. <\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fire survivors say using prediction markets to gamble on wildfire is \u201cmorally reprehensible\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":137271,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5755,5735],"tags":[1253,28,29,84],"naviga_topic":[],"class_list":["post-137270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-new-mexico","category-news","tag-gambling","tag-headlines","tag-newsletter","tag-wildfire"],"acf":[],"author_name":"dh_admin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/137270","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=137270"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/137270\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/137271"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=137270"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=137270"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=137270"},{"taxonomy":"naviga_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/naviga_topic?post=137270"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}