DENVER \u2013 \u2018Tis the season of ringing bells, but the one ringing at the state Capitol on Friday sounded more like a dinner bell.<\/p>\n
Legislators heard their quarterly economic forecast, and it crystallized a story that has been coming into focus all year: Colorado is recovering, and relatively good times have returned for lawmakers writing the state budget.<\/p>\n
Last year\u2019s conservative budget left the state with a half-billion-dollar surplus.<\/p>\n
But by 2015, legislators probably will have to deal with something they haven\u2019t seen since the 1990s: the Taxpayer\u2019s Bill of Rights requires tax refunds when spending grows enough.<\/p>\n
Add it up, and it means 2014 will be the year of \u201cmaximum flexibility\u201d for the state budget, said Natalie Mullis, the Legislature\u2019s chief economist.<\/p>\n
So for legislators and lobbyists who have waited years to get their programs funded, if there were a time to go shopping, it\u2019s now. But act fast; these door-buster specials won\u2019t last long.<\/p>\n
The legislative session begins Jan. 8, and the big but fleeting surplus of cash is shaping up to be a major theme. The Legislature\u2019s budget experts are already making pleas for restraint.<\/p>\n
Another recession could arrive in just a few years, said Rep. Cheri Gerou, R-Evergreen.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think we have a limited amount of time to fix what has been broken in the infrastructure of our state,\u201d said Gerou. \u201cJust because things are going better doesn\u2019t mean we don\u2019t have to be very, very careful about our spending.\u201d<\/p>\n
Economists for the Legislature and Gov. John Hickenlooper deliver their forecasts every three months, and they have grown more confident all year about predicting a slow recovery.<\/p>\n
Colorado has ranked No. 4 nationally in job growth since the Great Recession, said Jason Schrock, chief economist for the governor\u2019s office. His forecast changed very little since September.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think that shows the economy is becoming more boring. I think becoming more boring is a good thing. We all know what it\u2019s like to live in interesting times,\u201d Schrock said.<\/p>\n
The Legislature\u2019s economics staff noted one big, positive change since September. The budget deal Congress passed last week should remove the risk of Washington drama crashing the economy.<\/p>\n
Another government shutdown or flirtation with debt default probably won\u2019t happen, according to the forecast.<\/p>\n