The reaction? The State Department issued a statement. The NATO secretary-general issued a tweet. Neither did anything. The European Union (reports The Wall Street Journal) said it was too early to discuss any possible action.<\/p>\n
The timing of this brazen violation of NATO territory \u2013 two days after President Obama visited Estonia to symbolize America\u2019s commitment to its security \u2013 is testimony to Vladimir Putin\u2019s contempt for the American president. He knows Obama will do nothing. Why should he think otherwise?<\/p>\n
\u2014 Putin breaks the arms embargo to Iran by lifting the hold on selling it S-300 missiles. Obama responds by excusing him, saying it wasn\u2019t technically illegal and adding, with a tip of the hat to Putin\u2019s patience: \u201cI\u2019m frankly surprised that it held this long.\u201d<\/p>\n
Russia mousetraps Obama at the 11th hour of the Iran negotiations, joining Iran in demanding that the conventional-weapons and ballistic-missile embargos be dropped. Obama caves.<\/p>\n
Putin invades Ukraine, annexes Crimea, breaks two Minsk cease-fire agreements and erases the Russia-Ukraine border. Obama\u2019s response? Pinprick sanctions, empty threats and a continuing refusal to supply Ukraine with defensive weaponry, lest he provoke Putin.<\/p>\n
The East Europeans have noticed. In February, Lithuania decided to reinstate conscription, a move strategically insignificant \u2013 the Lithuanians couldn\u2019t hold off the Russian army for a day \u2013 but highly symbolic. Eastern Europe has been begging NATO to station permanent bases on its territory as a tripwire guaranteeing a powerful NATO\/U.S. response to any Russian aggression.<\/p>\n
NATO has refused. Instead, Obama offered more military exercises in the Baltic States and Poland. And threw in an additional 250 tanks and armored vehicles, spread amongseven allies.<\/p>\n
It is true that Putin\u2019s resentment over Russia\u2019s lost empire long predates Obama. But for resentment to turn into revanchism \u2013 an active policy of reconquest \u2013 requires opportunity. Which is exactly what Obama\u2019s \u201creset\u201d policy has offered over the past six and a half years.<\/p>\n
Since the end of World War II, Russia has known that what stands in the way of westward expansion was not Europe, living happily in decadent repose, but the United States as guarantor of Western security. Obama\u2019s naivete and ambivalence have put those guarantees in question.<\/p>\n
It began with the reset button, ostentatiously offered less than two months after Obama\u2019s swearing-in. Followed six months later by the unilateral American cancellation of the missile shield the Poles and the Czechs had agreed to install on their territory. Again, lest Putin be upset.<\/p>\n
By 2012, a still clueless Obama mocked Mitt Romney for saying that Russia is \u201cwithout question our No. 1 geopolitical foe,\u201d quipping oh so cleverly: \u201cThe 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back.\u201d After all, he explained, \u201cthe Cold War\u2019s been over for 20 years.\u201d<\/p>\n
Turned out it was 2015 calling. Obama\u2019s own top officials have been retroactively vindicating Romney. Last month, Obama\u2019s choice for chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff declared that \u201cRussia presents the greatest threat to our national security.\u201d Two weeks ago, the retiring Army chief of staff, Raymond Odierno, called Russia our \u201cmost dangerous\u201d military threat. Obama\u2019s own secretary of defense has gone one better: \u201cRussia poses an existential threat to the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n
Turns out the Cold War is not over either. Putin is intent on reviving it. Helped immensely by Obama\u2019s epic misjudgment of Russian intentions, the balance of power has shifted \u2013 and America\u2019s allies feel it.<\/p>\n
And not just the East Europeans. The president of Egypt, a country estranged from Russia for 40 years and our mainstay Arab ally in the Middle East, has twice visited Moscow within the last four months.<\/p>\n
The Saudis, congenitally wary of Russia but shell-shocked by Obama\u2019s grand nuclear capitulation to Iran that will make it the regional hegemon, are searching for alternatives, too. At a recent economic conference in St. Petersburg, the Saudis invited Putin to Riyadh and the Russians reciprocated by inviting the new King Salman to visit Czar Vladimir in Moscow.<\/p>\n
Even Pakistan, a traditional Chinese ally and Russian adversary, is buying Mi-35 helicopters from Russia, which is building a natural gas pipeline between Karachi and Lahore.<\/p>\n
As John Kerry awaits his upcoming Nobel and Obama plans his presidential library (my suggestion: Havana), Putin is deciding how to best exploit the final 17 months of his Obama bonanza.<\/p>\n
The world sees it. Obama doesn\u2019t.<\/p>\n