{"id":109819,"date":"2015-09-06T23:15:42","date_gmt":"2015-09-07T05:15:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/el-nino-threatens-to-pack-a-punch-this-winter\/"},"modified":"2015-09-06T23:15:42","modified_gmt":"2015-09-07T05:15:42","slug":"el-nino-threatens-to-pack-a-punch-this-winter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/el-nino-threatens-to-pack-a-punch-this-winter\/","title":{"rendered":"El Nino threatens to pack a punch this winter"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\"Montezuma-Cortez
Montezuma-Cortez High School on Jan. 18, 1962.<\/span>The Montezuma Valley Journal<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

Forecasters say a mighty El Ni\u00f1o warming eastern Pacific Ocean waters has the potential to bring nasty snowstorms to Southwest Colorado this winter.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s possible right now,\u201d Bernie Meier, a Weather Service meteorologist, said of El Ni\u00f1o potential. \u201cThe waters are fairly warm for this time of year; that\u2019s why we\u2019re expecting it to be a strong one. We definitely can\u2019t rule out it being a record one.\u201d<\/p>\n

The current El Ni\u00f1o, nicknamed \u201cBruce Lee,\u201d is already the second-strongest on record for this time of year. The Weather Service says it could be the biggest in 50 years.<\/p>\n

The World Meteorological Organization says it appears Bruce Lee will strengthen before the year ends. And according to the Weather Service\u2019s climate prediction center, temperature and precipitation impacts could last into 2016.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is a greater than 90 percent chance that El Ni\u00f1o will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16,\u201d the prediction center said in an El Ni\u00f1o advisory. \u201cAnd around an 85 percent chance it will last into early spring 2016.\u201d<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1os, which brew in the waters off the Central and South American coasts, typically bring excess precipitation to California and leave Montana and Idaho abnormally dry. In Colorado, forecasters say, the weather phenomenon often means monster snow events.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe biggest correlation we see is many of our bigger storms and stronger storms have occurred in El Ni\u00f1o years,\u201d Meier said. \u201cAs far as above-normal precipitation and below-normal precipitation (in Colorado), we haven\u2019t seen any correlation.\u201d<\/p>\n

Joel Gratz, founding meteorologist of OpenSnow.com, says while El Ni\u00f1o offers no forecast guarantees, \u201cit tips the odds\u201d toward there being more snow.<\/p>\n

In previous years of strong El Ni\u00f1o, Gratz said he has seen trends of big storms.<\/p>\n

\u201cEach of those seasons started out pretty strong and each of those (ski and snowboard) seasons ended pretty strong,\u201d he said. \u201cThe in between, the meat of the season, was below average.\u201d<\/p>\n

Joe Ramey, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction, said some of the hype makes him cringe. An El Ni\u00f1o pattern will definitely affect the weather in western Colorado this winter, but it\u2019s still impossible to forecast with certainty what it will mean for specific locations in the mountains, he said. He has examined the 23 El Ni\u00f1o winters since 1950 to see how they affected Aspen, Steamboat Springs, Crested Butte, Telluride, Silverton and other Colorado ski resorts.<\/p>\n

Conditions have tended to be drier and warmer than average during December, January and February.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat El Nino tends to do is produce snow outside of that window,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The National Weather Service\u2019s Climate Prediction Center recently issued a three-month outlook for December, January and February. Central Colorado had an equal chance of temperatures being above or below average. Southern Colorado had a slight chance of being below average.<\/p>\n

The southern two-thirds of the state has an above average chance of an above average amount of precipitation, the outlook said.<\/p>\n

Economic studies have shown El Ni\u00f1o years can have a positive boost. Colorado\u2019s ski areas, plagued by weak and inconsistent snowfalls in the past several years, certainly hope that is the case.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s exciting news,\u201d said Jennifer Rudolph, spokeswoman for Colorado Ski Country USA. \u201cIt certainly adds to the buzz and anticipation of the season.\u201d<\/p>\n

Rudolph said resorts won\u2019t know until after Labor Day Weekend if season pass sales will get an uptick from the news.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor the industry overall, the fact that everyone is talking about this giant El Ni\u00f1o is great,\u201d she said. \u201cOverall, a rising tide lifts all boats.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u2018Bruce Lee\u2019 could bring nasty snowstorms to Southwest<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":109820,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5736,5735],"tags":[21,13,60,36,414],"naviga_topic":[],"class_list":["post-109819","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-local-news","category-news","tag-cortez","tag-frontpage-lead","tag-montezuma-county","tag-montezuma-cortez-high-school","tag-weather"],"acf":[],"author_name":"dh_admin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109819","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109819"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109819\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109820"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109819"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109819"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109819"},{"taxonomy":"naviga_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/naviga_topic?post=109819"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}