In the midst of the raucous and polarized presidential election, a quieter story has been at play as well: the growing political clout of Latino voters.<\/p>\n
Nationwide, about 12 percent of the country\u2019s eligible voting population is Hispanic \u2014 and the West is home to nearly 40 percent of those voters, far surpassing other regions. This November, Hispanic voters are projected to turn out in greater numbers than they did in 2012, with a nearly 10 percent increase forecast by the National Association of Latino Elected Officials Educational Fund.<\/p>\n
At the same time, the Latino voting bloc is in transition. Latino populations are getting younger, larger and more politically engaged. In the process, they promise to change Western presidential politics.<\/p>\n
Now, not only are there more Hispanic younger voters, but an increasing percentage of them are born in the United States. That naturalized population is beginning to dominate the Latino population of voters (non-citizens can\u2019t vote). Young Hispanics make up a larger proportion of the voting block than in other groups: 44 percent of Hispanic voters are between the ages of 18 and 35 this year, compared to 27 percent among white voters.<\/p>\n
\u201cEvery election cycle, there is a tsunami of young Latino voters that is reaching voting age,\u201d says Joseph Garcia, director of the Morrison Institute Latino Public Policy Center at Arizona State University. \u201cThis very well could be the last year that you could even think you could win an election without the Latino vote.\u201d<\/p>\n
While Latino influence on the outcome of elections is increasing, voter turnout among Hispanic voters remains generally low. In 2012, only 48 percent of Latinos who could vote actually did \u2014 compared to 64 percent of eligible white voters that made it out to polling places in the general election. But as the Latino population grows, the rate of voter turnout is increasing, too.<\/p>\n
While participation is on the rise, significant barriers still prevent some from voting; historic trends take time to reverse. \u201cMore Latinos are eligible to vote, but you still face this millennial challenge: Young people, regardless of race, by and large, don\u2019t vote,\u201d Garcia says. Also, \u201cif your parents don\u2019t vote, you\u2019re less likely to.\u201d Often Hispanic youth and their families work long hours or hold multiple jobs, which makes it harder to get to polling places on Election Day. Garcia says that was the case for his late father, a roofer from New Mexico, whose long commute and working hours made voting in person unrealistic. \u201cThe voting hours (6 a.m. until 7 p.m.) weren\u2019t set up to make voting easy for him,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n
Immigration has been the defining issue for many Latino voters, 66 percent of whom say they want to see comprehensive immigration reform. That issue has influenced a majority of Hispanic voters\u2019 political leanings. While many Hispanic citizens hold more conservative values on social issues like gay marriage and abortion, the Republican Party\u2019s views on immigration and environmental protection have led many voters to lean Democratic in presidential elections, says Jens Manuel Krogstad, an expert on immigration and social trends at the Pew Research Center. In 2012, more than 70 percent of the Latino community voted for President Barack Obama, and Latino voters are still expected to lean left come November. \u201c(Republicans) are being interpreted by a lot of potential voters as anti-Latino \u2014 and that could impact the ballot this election,\u201d Garcia says.<\/p>\n
As more young voters come of age, the left-leaning tendency could strengthen. The younger and increasingly engaged Hispanic electorate in the West could be more of a deciding factor in upcoming elections, particularly in battlegrounds states like Colorado, Nevada and increasingly competitive Arizona.<\/p>\n
In Colorado, a competitive state in the presidential election, a greater proportion of the Hispanic population has been born in the country. This is a recent shift from older generations where a greater proportion migrated to the United States. This November, more than 277,500 Latinos are expected to cast ballots \u2014 a more than 7 percent increase, according to projections by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials.<\/p>\n
The growing Latino population in Arizona could prove disruptive to the state\u2019s notoriously conservative politics. According to the Arizona State University Morrison Institute and the Pew Research Center, if Latino voter turnout continues to rise at its current rate, Arizona would become a battleground state by 2030. This November, more than 433,000 Latinos are expected to cast ballots \u2014 an 8 percent increase from 2012, according to projections by the NALAEO.<\/p>\n
In Nevada, Hispanic groups are becoming more vocal on the immigration debate and about their opposition to Trump, whose campaign has taken an anti-immigration stance. But their influence is complicated by the fact that the state has the largest percentage of undocumented immigrants in the country (nearly 8 percent; California comes second with just over 6 percent), according to the Pew Research Center. Organizations including NALEAO and United We Dream, a group that represents immigrant youth, have begun to urge their peers to register and vote. Perhaps the most vocal group is the \u201cdreamers,\u201d a growing coalition of young, undocumented Latinos who\u2019ve lived most of their lives in the U.S. While they can\u2019t vote because they are not recognized as legal citizens, a group of them have started to go door-to-door to urge Hispanics across the West to register. \u201cThere is a force to gather the troops, so if Trump is the GOP nominee come November, they will be ready to vote against him,\u201d Garcia says. In Nevada, more than 194,000 Latinos are expected to cast ballots in November, a more than 7 percent increase in turnout.<\/p>\n
Until results from November\u2019s presidential election are in, it\u2019s hard to know for sure when the potential political clout of the Hispanic demographic could be realized. \u201cEvery election cycle, there is a new wave of Latino voters that mature into voting age and everyone is watching that group more and more closely,\u201d Garcia says. \u201cBut the monumental political shifts haven\u2019t quite played out.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Latinos make up 21 percent of the West\u2019s electorate, and election-day turnout is on the rise<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5736,5735],"tags":[3209,266,781,299,912,265],"naviga_topic":[],"class_list":["post-105949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-local-news","category-news","tag-demographics","tag-election","tag-environmental-politics","tag-national-elections","tag-national-or-ethnic-minority","tag-politics"],"acf":[],"author_name":"dh_admin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105949\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105949"},{"taxonomy":"naviga_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dh.durangoherald.com\/tj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/naviga_topic?post=105949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}