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A rebound in home sales from the Great Recession in 2008 is expected to extend into 2018, with the lure of the San Juan Mountains expected to attract more baby boomer retirees, outdoor-loving millennials and big-city residents looking to better their quality of life.<\/p>\n
The area\u2019s draws, said John Wells, broker-owner of The Wells Group<\/a>, and Bob Allen, real estate appraiser and consultant with Allen & Associates<\/a>, are likely to prove stronger than some market headwinds developing \u2013 especially rising building costs and increasing mortgage rates in 2018.<\/p>\n A forecast for the real estate market came Tuesday night at the 18th annual Wells Group forecast held at the Community Concert Hall at Fort Lewis College.<\/p>\n \u201cHomebuilders are having a tough time finding guys to swing the hammers. I think construction costs are going to have to go up,\u201d Allen said.<\/p>\n He noted mortgage rates have increased 10 percent since January 2016.<\/p>\n \u201cThat\u2019s really going to impact affordability,\u201d Allen said.<\/p>\n Lumber prices, he said, are at an all-time high. Also, he expected steel and aluminum tariffs proposed by the Trump administration to fuel increased costs for homebuilders.<\/p>\n \u201cI think some buyers are in for a price shock,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Wells, who made 10 predictions for the real estate market, topped the list with revisions to the La Plata County land-use code<\/a>.<\/p>\n His prediction, a fairly safe one given past experience: Development of the county\u2019s land-use code this year would \u201ccreate a spirited, stimulating and passionate debate.\u201d<\/p>\n He said almost everyone agrees the code needs improvement from the much-panned draft released in December 2017.<\/p>\n \u201cWe all have to contribute to the development of the code, so what we end up with in October or November is something we all can live with and will enhance life for everyone in La Plata County,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Despite the lack of snow, Wells expected a good year for tourism in La Plata County \u2013 saying Durango\u2019s place on the national parks loop in the Four Corners plays a particularly valuable role in supporting demand for housing in the county.<\/p>\n \u201cTourists become residents,\u201d he said. \u201cThey buy second homes and vacation homes. They buy retirement homes or they come and are gainfully employed.\u201d<\/p>\n He noted the sales tax collections in Durango for recreation and amusement spending increased 30 percent in 2017 compared with 2016.<\/p>\n Allen noted the median price level of Durango homes has plateaued around $425,000, for about a year.<\/p>\n He also noted days on the market for Durango homes in 2017 was about four months, which he said is a relatively brief time by industry standards.<\/p>\n In Bayfield, Allen said a lack of available homes on the market may pinch home sales in 2018.<\/p>\n In total, all real estate transactions in La Plata County, which include vacant land sales and commercial permits as well as residential permits, increased by 9 percent in 2017 compared with 2016.<\/p>\n But residential permits in particular had a fairly spectacular increase of 90 percent in 2017, a number largely driven by a 220 percent increase in multi-family permits. Development of apartments in Three Springs is a good portion of the increase, Allen said.<\/p>\n Residential permits include permits for single-family homes, multi-family homes, duplexes and townhomes.<\/p>\n